soloo

A collection of viewpoints, mindset, common sense, psychology, approaches and other random notes.
The qualified investor, are you qualified?

我这里有一点很重要的就是认为大多数人其实不碰股票就是最好的投资，除非你认为自己确实有了解的好公司处在便宜的价钱。
那些把投资股票当作赌博的人，幻想一夜暴富，不惜动用大量资金，甚至加杠杆。运气好时确实能短期内获利，但只要市场稍有波动，杠杆的放大效应就会让他们瞬间倾家荡产。
这与真正的投资背道而驰，投资本应是基于理性分析、稳健布局，追求长期价值增长。
因此
对于很多人来说，不碰股票可能就是最好的投资，起码能保证不亏本金。— 段永平
你要对生意感兴趣，对公司感兴趣，多过对赚钱感兴趣。如果你只是对赚钱感兴趣，那你不适合做投资。— Charlie Munger
点评：很多人所谓的喜欢“投资”，其实只是喜欢投资中“赚钱”的那部分，至于长期跟踪研究，以及亏钱的那部分则没有心理准备。
上班 vs. 投资？
标普500长期年化收益率是10%，如果没有分红再投入，则年化收益率只有6%～7%，这还没有计算通货膨胀对购买力的影响。
而普通投资者的年化收益率长期下来很难战胜标普500，
也就是说，算上通货膨胀，长期下来可能是白忙一场，前提是散户投资人真正做到了“长期投资”，如果追涨杀跌，则结果会更糟。可能这也解释了为什么没有太多人通过投资致富，而绝大多数人选择上班吧。
价值投资者最重要的特质是坚定的信念不受情绪干扰，独立思考和耐心。— 安东尼波顿
点评：坚定的信念不意味着固执或赌性坚强，而是
有一套经历过时间锤炼的稳定的投资框架。这正是新手不具备的，也是新手亏钱的一大原因。

在投资框架打磨成熟之前，不建议个股仓位过重。
5. 成功不在于做出惊天动地的事，而是不断地把简单的事情做好（simple, but not easy)。
6. Live a conservative life: as an investor, buy assets, act broke.
7. Keep learning, find great investors and pay attention to what they’re doing.
Investing vs gambling, know what you are doing

投机有个问题就是不知道什么时候卖。涨了10%就想卖，卖了之后就又要投入到下一场未知的赌博中去。随着手上的筹码越来越多，一招不慎可能就回到解放前，连本带利全部赔回去。所以商业分析是真正投资是必由之路。
不要把投资玩成了由多巴胺驱动的短期刺激反馈循环的赌博上瘾游戏。
看得清收益就是投资，看不清就是赌博；“模糊的正确”前提是正确。
你对中国人了解不深刻，宁肯节衣缩食也要做一夜暴富的白日梦。一辈子没做过生意，不了解商业却认为自己能搞投资。这样的中国人很多。— 彭瑶
股票市场是个测谎仪，它永远会用腰斩、脚踝斩来测试投资者是否真的懂他所投资的公司，还是只是“碰碰运气（赌博）”？
Patience, the power of time and a long-term mindset
The biggest thing about making money is time. You don’t have to be particularly smart — you just have to be patient. — Warren Buffett
“滴水石穿”，要相信时间的力量；坚持大于努力。
Your feeling is facts multiplied by your attention. Staying away from the market is not an option, it is a must for a long-term investor.
不要盯着股价看，容易被牵着鼻子走，变得短视，被动，迷茫。
股市就像嘈杂的菜市场，乱哄哄的，绝大多数的声音是噪音，需要自动过滤掉。
股市市场就是个乱哄哄，臭醺醺的菜市场，充满需要被自动过滤掉的噪音。
做投资，与其想抓住那些变化，不如想清楚哪些是不变的，在那些不变的地方抓住机会。
Checking your account more frequently won’t make your money compounding faster.
Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas. — Paul Samuelson
In the end, what counts is buying a good business at a decent price, and then forgetting about it for a long, long, long time. Some people can do it and some people can't. — Warren Buffett
In investing, a thick stomach is more important than a bright brain.
Checking your account won’t make your investment compounding any faster.
知道和懂不是一回事，“懂”需要一个把知识“内化”的过程，这个过程往往需要很长时间。
“The thesis underlying everything, whether you’re an actively managed fund or a passive fund, is that the U.S. will be OK. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be in the stock market.” — Peter Lynch
What’s safe in the short-term, might be risk in the long-term (consider saving money versus investing money).
If you don’t plan to hold it for 10 years, don’t bother hold it for 10 minutes. — Warren Buffett
Save more, invest wiser, wait longer.
Try to get a little smarter every day and read as much as possible. — Charlie Munger
Being able to execute a long-time strategy is the single most advantage of retail investors over institutions.
Investing once won’t make you rich, investing consistently might.
Exercising once won’t make you fit; exercising consistently might; Reading once won’t make you smart, reading consistently might.
Consistency of action is the key to getting everything done.
Accept the facts that: Sometimes, stocks give you nothing.
S&P 500 number of days without reaching prior high varies from 200 days to 1800 days based on history from 1950 to 2022.
Valuation (P/E Ratio) rules the short-term, while revenue and profit growth create value in the long-term.
It's a mistake to invest in long-term assets with a short-term mindset.
The longer the investor holds, the higher the chance to have positive return.
In investing, patience is gold; (Warren Buffett) never acts in a hurry, or over work.
"Read 500 pages every week. That's how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will." — Warren Buffett
本分，行稳才能致远
舍不是为了得。我曾经用“有借有还、再借不难”这句话来说明本分的意思。其中“有借有还”就是本分，但“再借不难”其实是功利。当你不再想着“再借不难”时，你就真的“本分”了。

点评：这是我看到的关于“本分”的解释的最好的版本了，做一件事情，因为它是正确的，而不是因为它是可能带来回报的，就是“本分”。
2. 不赚认知外的钱也是一种“本分”；想不通它的商业模式别买，想不通它的估值也别买。
3. 投资不是总想着赚取最大收益，而是追求在长时期内赚取合理收益。点评：这其实是一种“本分”。
4. 市场变幻无常，不要有侥幸心理；投资是赚耐心的钱，不是赚交易的钱。
5. Not greedy, not in a hurry.
6. Being rich is the exact opposite direction of being wealthy.
7. The point is: Successful investing is not making a lot of money quickly, but what it really about is earning reasonable returns over a long period of time — look, that’s Berkshire Hathaway, that’s the success of long-term investing.
Independent, critical thinking, first principles

做投资一定要独立思考，不然你不可能懂任何东西，哪怕再努力地“学习”。独立思考，你会发现世界上有太多的“一本正经地胡说八道”。
要分得清观点和事实；很多人把观点当事实，于是只看得见自己想看到的东西。
学习不要追求“多”，要追求真的“懂”；真的懂了就能举一反三，大道至简，大道理不需要太多，真传一句话，假传万卷书。
The key is to understand, not to learn.
多摆数据、讲事实，少输出或者不要输出观点。
任何一个理论，它的前提条件比结论更值得关注。看到任何一个结论，不要盲目相信，想想它成立的条件有哪些，不成立的情况有哪些。
做投资，不要人云亦云，不要说些似是而非的话，要自己想清楚。— 彭瑶
My idea of group decision is look into the mirror. — Warren Buffett
今天刷YouTube视频，刷着刷着有一个感受：
做二级市场投资两年，不仅没有变成上通天文下晓地理，古今中外侃侃而谈的样子，反而觉得要关心的事越来越少，很多事情都是“与我何干”。
贵出如粪土，贱取如珠玉。”一致“很贵，分歧才有机会。
投资不是认知变现，是认知差变现，人之差来源于独立思考。
Market does not tell an investor anything, public opinion pool does not make you rich in Wall street either, what matters is only if your judgements are factually right. And facts are easy to get in today’s society. — Warren Buffett
Maintain a healthy level of skepticism.
Think for yourself, avoid herd behavior.
Avoid first-level thinking, embrace second-level thinking.
Risks, we don’t know that we don’t know
If you think you can predict the market, you are a fool. — Howard Marks
It’s not what you don’t know gets you into trouble, it’s the things that you’re sure about turns out not true. — Mark Twine
Respect what I don’t know.
If you think you can predict the market, you’re a fool. — Howard Marks
Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing. — Warren Buffett
It's technically harder to climb back up even after losing money.
Respect what I don’t know;there are two types of investors losing money, one is knowing nothing, the other is knowing everything.
Always have more questions than answers.
过于依赖对未来的预测的人，通常都会死的很惨。
Respect what I don’t know.
In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield. — Warren Buffett.
Instead of thinking how to make money when making a deal, think about how not to lose money.
Disciplines, what should stick do
Discipline is nothing but self-respect at the highest level.
True wisdom in investing isn’t just knowing what to do—it’s having the discipline to do it when everyone else is doing the opposite. — Warren Buffett
Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable willpower to keep from following the crowd. — Benjamin Graham
If I know where I’m going to die, I won’t go there; If I know something is bad for me, I’m not going to do it.
Investing requires qualities of temperament way more than it requires qualities of intellect. You must supply the emotional discipline. — Warren Buffett
Losing money in investing? The problem might be You!

Let's assume you're investing, not speculating. The problem might not be the company you're buying, the problem might be You! You don't know the company well enough before buying it, then, you sell them on bad news because you are not prepared!
So, don’t only pay attention to the company you’re investing in, pay attention to yourself, too.

“Not doing anything” becomes the best option when there is no obvious long-term opportunities. Opportunity is also a cost.
你控制不了市场的行为和情绪，但你可以控制自己买什么，什么时候买，买多少。
如果我知道我会死在哪里，我不会去那里。 — 如果我知道做什么事情有什么不好的后果，我就不应该做。比如，我知道投机会亏钱，我就不应该投机；我知道吃快餐对身体不好，就不该吃快餐。
Limit your tries to areas of competence. If you try to predict the future of everything, you attempt too much. — Charlie Munger
Good investing is not necessarily about making good decisions. It’s about consistently not screwing up. — Morgan Housel
Operate only in your own area of competence, always stick to your own investing strategy; don’t work against yourself.
There was a popular saying: Don't just sit there; do something. But for investing, I'd invert it: Don't just do something; sit there. -- Howard Marks
Be patient and learn how to sit on your hands. — Charlie Munger
It doesn’t matter how often you trade, how much principal you have, it’s all about doing it right.
Cycles, the world runs on circles
The worst feature about real estate in a depression is that it is illiquid and cannot be sold at any price. If it is free of mortgage the owner may hold on until normal times — but in most cases it is subject to mortgage — he cannot collect his rent from the tenants — and cannot pay on his mortgage or taxes and eventually loses his equity by the foreclosure route.
一两年的投资收益说明不了任何问题，它大概率只是股市波动的一个片段。
There are times, in a depression when cash money is king and many good investments can be purchased at a big discount.
股价涨的时候你要知道它会跌的，股价跌的时候你要知道它会涨的；市场情绪悲观的时候你要知道它会乐观起来的，市场情绪乐观的时候你要知道它会悲观下去的。总之，市场的行为和情绪都是无法预测的，非理性的，你要利用它，而不是被它影响，甚至情绪被它放大。
When we feel safe, we behave more dangerously; when we feel cautious, we behave in a safer manner. — Howard Marks
很多投资大师都是逆向投资者，逆向投资也就是在周期谷底附近买入，周期顶峰附近卖出。
Market moves in cycles, so does investors’ emotion.
Accounting and Finance, you really shouldn’t pick stocks if you’re not into it
净利润是一种会计观点，它是调节出来的，不是算出来的。
多看财务，打好基础，少天马行空；多学习，少出手，做到这一点，就赢过90%的人了。— 彭瑶
A business mind, that’s how you think about investing
If you understand business, you understand investments. — Warren Buffett
不要张口闭口“护城河”，商业模式都没搞懂谈什么护城河；也不要随随便便说“安全边际”，不懂估值哪有什么安全边际。大多数人都是鹦鹉学舌，保持谦逊，不要成为其中一个。
财务数据一定要结合具体的业务看才有意义。
比如，营收，费用和利润分别是如何计算的，这些数据的变动反应出公司的业务竞争力是增强了还是削弱了，是短期还是长期的。
拿电商来说，有的拿GMV作营收，例如京东，有的拿服务费所得作营收，例如拼多多；费用，同一笔费用，有的公司把它当作开支，有的公司把它转化成资本；利润，利润是可以调节的。而之所以京东和拼多多计算营收的方式不同又是由它们的业务不同而决定的，所以财务数据一定要结合具体的业务看才有意义。
It is the business behind the numbers that make sense, numbers alone don’t tell anything.
投资能力在精不在多，不在于总共投了多少家公司，而在于理解得最深的那家公司有多深。
我判断一个人投资水平如何，主要是看他对于生意的理解。如果能够对某些生意的要点信手拈来，那么我认为他是可以的，而不是听人吹自己收益率多少、赚了多少钱。如果讲很多逻辑，甚至天马行空的大话，基本上这种我是不交流的。 — 彭瑶
Beta and modern portfolio theory and the like none of it makes any sense to me; We're trying to buy businesses with sustainable competitive advantages at a low, or even a fair, price. — Charlie Munger
Strategy, be a professional because you are competing with them
要么跟紧市场，不断提高踩对节奏的概率，要么彻底不管市场，只做自己认为正确的事。
跟紧市场比较难，市场是由人群组成的，而人群的行为是很难预测的，而且经验似乎很难积累。所以我选择后者，
彻底不管市场，只做自己认为正确的事。
不要试图预测市场，市场是由人群的情绪推动的，而人群的情绪是瞬息万变、无法预测的。If you think you can predict the market, you’re a fool. — Howard Marks
不因为“涨”所以买，才能不因为“跌”而卖。初心对结果的影响是决定性的。
The worst reason for buying a stock is because its price went up.
For most investors, making tactical investment is not the best thing they can do, they’ll do that badly. In institutions, we spend millions probably billions of dollars just try to have an edge. — Ray Dalio
A deeper discussion regarding
Strategic investing vs. Tactical investing
每把武器都有用，但首先你要会用，而且要用对地方。
市场对公司往往是全员投票、充分定价的，这里面有大量专业机构和聪明人；想赚钱要么比别人挖得更努力，找到蒙尘遗珠，要么比大家更有耐心，等到市场恐慌时低价接盘，并通过长期持有来增加胜率。随大流的一个问题就是容易高位接盘，一有点小风浪自己的船就翻了，一朝回到解放前，没有安全边际。
寻找“非对称”的投资机会，即收益远大于风险的机会。
在能力圈内投资就像从装满鱼的水桶里钓鱼。
投资就是对世界观的投票，要选择适合自己价值观的投资方式，投资方法没有对错之分。— 大卫翁
公司股票的最终买家只有一个，就是是公司自己，别总想着互掏口袋的事儿。
交易记录拉出来，买点卖点不能像打醉拳一样，密集，又摇摇晃晃，毫无章法。每次操作都应该默认看作一次扣分。
Invest with preparation, not prediction. — Howard Marks
不要买劣质公司、不要参与不严肃的讨论；和猪摔跤只会滚得一身泥。
面对一个无法赢的局或毫无把握的局，最优选择是不参与。
我发现我适合一次持有一两只股票，拿多了会失去重心。同时持有十几二十支股票不适合我。
We’re all debt’s slaves.
Change, as in the case of the Internet, can be a friend of society. But it is the absence of change that is often the friend of the investor.
While the internet will change many things, it will not likely change the brand of gum people chew. — Warren Buffett
越简单的题才越看得清，找简单的题解。
We try to stick to businesses we believe we understand—that means they must be relatively simple and stable in character. — Warren Buffett
回看交易记录，频繁进出几乎都是亏。频繁进出是一个危险信号！说明还没准备好这笔投资。
It takes just a few winners to work wonders.
投资不是一个能力越强收益越高的领域，而是一个对自我认知越真实、思考问题越客观才能取得较高收益的领域。
We don’t do startups, they don’t exist. There’s lots of territory we can handle. — Charlie Munger
Directional call buying, when consume as a steady appetite, is a mug’s game and often a path to the poorhouse.
The best offense is defense in the investing world. Once succeeded in defense, capital will compound itself by nature.
It's not so much about one approach being better than the other. The approach needs to match the investor's temperament. And to do that—above all else—you need to be honest with yourself about who you are.
Active Management is a Loser’s Game in Bull or Bear Markets.
Try to buy stocks at cheap valuation levels.
Generally speaking, to achieve market-beating returns over the long term, you need to invest in companies that grow both revenues and cash flows faster than the market.
After more than 25 years of investing professionally and after 9 years of teaching at an Ivy League business school, I am convinced of at least two things: If you really want to “beat the market,” most professionals and academics can’t help you, and that leaves only one real alternative: You must do it yourself.
Valuation, know what you are buying, don’t be a fool
一家公司的合理价格不是套用公式一秒钟算出来的，是长期跟踪得来的。
不懂不要看价格，对于不懂的东西，价格是无意义，因为你根本不知道那是便宜还是贵，市场先生来报价（打折价）也不要理。
If you don’t know who’s fool on the table, then the fool might be you. — Warren Buffett
What the wise men think the first, the fools think the last. — Warren Buffett
If you attempt to assess intrinsic value, it all relates to cash flows. The only reason for putting cash into any kind of an investment now is because you expect to take cash out. — Warren Buffett
只谈公司不谈估值就是耍流氓；只谈买、卖，不谈仓位管理也是耍流氓。
It’s meaningless to talk about any ratios without considering the durability.
If we can’t make a decision in five minutes, we can’t make it in five months, because we can’t learn enough in the following five months (to make a decision). — Warren Buffett
The process of “know enough”:
Never heard of the company → Know the stock ticker → Know the company name → Know the stock performance → Know the business model → Know the opportunity → Know the competitive advantage → Know the financials → Know the customer experience → Know the management team → Know the Risks → Know the company culture → KNOW ENOUGH
Margin of Safety, in essence, is a deep understanding of Optional Cost.
The stock market is full of individuals who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Higher interest rates forced a repricing of the stock market, especially for companies with high valuations relative to its peers.
Portfolio management
We have three baskets for investing: yes, no, and too tough to understand. — Charlie Munger
越是重仓，越应该保持客观。 — 雪球网友
Dare to ask, the answer might be just there, for free.
Interestingly, in the beginning of year 2025, those who believe US stocks never fail were hit the hardest.
We’re the products of time, and so is everyone else.
Assets type assessment: Liquidity, Volatility, Potential of Growth, Store of Value, Durability, Tangibility, etc.
做投资，拥有谦虚开放的心态非常重要，不然就是一头扎进死胡同。
远离所有让自己关注短期波动的信息，专注于长期因素；追涨杀跌最大的问题不是浪费了手续费，而是浪费了时间。
什么时候自己才算成为了一个真正的投资者？至少要体内的多巴胺水平不会随着股价的波动而波动的时候，不然你只是一个沉迷于赌博的瘾君子而已。
Charlie and I continue to believethat short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.— Warren Buffett
加仓、减仓、调仓，都应该是深思熟虑的，有规划的，而不是随性的。
别盯着账上的浮盈看，浮盈可以瞬间为负；盯着手上的资产，以及它们的成本价看。
You should never test the depth of the water with both feet. — Warren Buffett
同理，如果没有弄清楚公司的估值，不要all-in。
资产配置思维和商业思维不是同一个维度的考量，前者是着眼于长期资产管理，后者是着重生意分析；前者偏向宏观，后者偏向微观。
Develop the mindset that you don't make money on buying nor selling, you make money from waiting and what you hold. -- Howard Marks
Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves. — Peter Lynch
It’s reasonable, as a retail investor, while still learning, to allocate 80% of his capital in index ETF instead of picking individual stocks.
Being right or wrong is less important than how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.
Your most valuable assets are family, health, friends, free time (independent), self-confidence, meaningful work.
Don’t forget to build the lifestyle you want, while building the bank account you want.
I can’t predict what will happen, but I should know what to do if certain things happened.
Always be prepared for investment portfolio of dropping 30% or more, for 1~3 years.
Revisit history of S&P 500, days to come up with the previous peak:

Human error, be alert to human weakness, learn from history

警惕语言的催眠作用；既要防止媒体信息的催眠，也要防止自我催眠。
There is nothing new in investing, only investment history you don’t know.
Year over year, investors were provided the repeated lessons learned; unfortunately, too many investors fail to learn - they keep making the same mistakes.
Because they don’t want to get rich slowly.
The problem is not the investment, the problem is people buying a stock hoping it goes up, instead of buying a business hoping the business do well.
I mean, you thought the business was a good investment at 600 billions, and now at 200 billions, still making a crapload of money, you dislike the business? You like the money to be compounding at 30 times earnings and get a chance to get it to compound at 9 times an earnings and somehow it is terrible?
What we have learned from history is that we haven’t learned from history.
New paradigms are a rare occurrence; think about the .com bubble and what’s happening now, the AI hype.
Experience is what you get when you didn’t get what you want.
It's emotionally 3 times bitter losing the same amount of money than making it.
Don’t invest under pressure. The worst time to shop grocery is when you’re hungry; the worst deal you would make is when you want money.
Investing plays all kinds of tricks on your mind.
The more often a stupidity is repeated, the more it gets the appearance of wisdom.
Common sense is not so common, fear and greedy usually overrun common sense.
Investors emotion always amplifies the stock price fluctuations; therefore, there are always chances to buy good businesses with a good price.
There is no vaccine for being over-leveraged.
When you combine ignorance and leverage, you usually get some pretty scary results.