系统性思考

Connection circles 联系圈

Understand relationships and identify feedback loops within systems.
(理解系统内的关系并识别反馈回路。)
Connection circles are a tool for visualising relationships in a story or a system. They help you understand complexity by seeing causes and effects in the system.
（Connection circles 是一种将故事或系统中的关系可视化的工具。它们帮助你通过看到系统中的因果关系来理解复杂性。）
Connection circles can also help you identify feedback loops – whether reinforcing or balancing.
（Connection circles 也可以帮助你识别 Feedback loops （反馈回路 此处需要超链接），无论是强化或者平衡 ）

How to create a connection circle （如何创建一个 Connection Circle）

1. Start with a circle on a piece of paper. （开始在一张空白的纸上画一个圆）
2. Next, identify the key elements of the system you're examining.（下面确认你所在系统的关键因素）
   • How do you know what's a key element? It meets these criteria:（你是如何确认他是关键因素呢？这些需要符合什么标准呢？）
     • It's important to changes in the system （关键因素它的变化对于系统来说是非常重要的）
     • Increases or decreases in the system （系统中的增加或者减少）
     • Can be described by a noun （关键因素可以用一个名词描述的）
3. Write these elements around the circle (don't include more than 10).（把这些关键因素写在环形四周，但是不要超过10个关键元素，这里包含10个关键元素）
4. Look for cause and effect.（寻找关键元素的因果关系）
   • Which elements are directly causing other elements to increase or decrease? （哪个关键元素直接导致其他元素的增加活着减少呢？）
   • Draw an arrow between these elements. （在这些关键元素间用箭头链接）
   • Indicate an increase (draw a "+") or a decrease (draw a "–") for the second element in each relationship.（指出每个关系中第二个元素的增加（画一个 "+"）或减少（画一个"-"））
5. Find all of the cause-and-effect relationships. These can be based on data or they can be a hypothesis.（找到所有的因果关系。这些可以是基于数据的，也可以是一个假设。）
6. Look for elements whose relationships form closed loops. These are feedback loops. （寻找那些关系形成闭环的元素。这些是反馈环路。）

Example（例子）

It's best to illustrate with an example.
（这个模型最好用一个例子来说明）
Let's say our product has been dealing with unhappy customers.
（比如说：我的产品和那些满意度不高的顾客们之间需要处理的关系）
We know they've been complaining about too many bugs
（我们知道客户一直在抱怨产品存在太多的 Bug）
in the product and slow response times from our support (as customers create more support tickets).
（以及我的产品售后支持响应速度不迅速，导致客户提交了许多支持工单）
At the same time, we've been shipping more features to make them happier.
（同一时间，我们一直在增加更多的新的产品特性维持客户的满意度）
Let's use make a connection circle so that we can make sense of this.
（让我们画一个 Connection circle，这样我们就可以大致理解这个复杂系统下的主要特征了）
From this story, we can identify the key elements: unhappy customers,
（通过这个故事，我们可以确认的关键元素有：满意度不高的客户）
bugs in the product, response times, support tickets and new features.
（产品重的 BUG，问题反馈响应时间，支持工单 和 产品新特性）
We'll document them around our connection circle:
（我们讲这些关键元素在 Connection circle 上记录下来）

Now we need to document the relationships between them.
（现在我们需要记录关键元素之间的关系）
For example, we know that unhappy customers create more support tickets.
（比如，我们知道 不满意的客户创建了更多的支持工单）
More tickets means longer response time which in turn produces even more unhappy customers.
（更多的工单意味着会增加了售后支持的响应时间，反之因为售后支持的响应时间漫长，产生了更多的不满意的客户。ps：这是一个恶性循环）
We try to ship new features which lower the number of unhappy customers.
（我们试图通过增加新的产品特性来降低不满意客户的数量）
But they also produce more bugs and those lead to more unhappy customers again.
（但是新的产品特性会带来一些 新 Bugs 出现，这让对产品不满意的客户再次增加）
Let's map these relationships to the connection circle:
（让我们把这些关系映射到这个 Connection Circle中：）

The connection circle is now nicely showing
（现在这个 Connection circle 循环已经很好的展示出来）
the key elements of the system and the relationships between them.
（这个系统的关键因素以及他们之间的关系了）
There's even one feedback loop that we can see here:
（我们可以看到这里甚至有一个 FeedBack loop 在这里 ）

The completed connection circle and an identified feedback loop make you better understand the system.
（一个完整的 Connection circle 和 一个确定的 feedback loop 会让你更好的理解当前的系统环境 ）
This understanding will greatly help you make changes that you need.
（这种理解将极大地帮助你做出你需要的改变。 ）

Takeaway（要点）

Connection circles is a great tool for understanding systems.
（Connection circles 对于理解系统来说是一个非常好的工具）
It's about identifying key elements and mapping the relationships between them.
（这是关于确定关键因素和对他们之间的关系进行映射）
This tool can help you identify feedback loops as well.
（这个工具可以帮助你更好的确认 feedback loop（反馈循环））
(ps:才处理关系得时候也可以用,比如情侣之间的吵架)

Iceberg Model 冰山模型

Uncover root causes of events by looking at hidden levels of abstractions.
目的：(通过观察隐藏的抽象层次来揭示事件的根本原因。)

Addressing problems only on their event level is often not enough.
(只针对事件本身解决问题往往是不足够的)
The real causes are often hidden from plain sight.
(事件的真相往往隐藏在人们的视线之外。)
Iceberg model is a tool that allows you to shift your perspective
(Iceberg Model 模型工具可以帮助你转换观察视角)
and see beyond the immediate events that everyone notices.
(并且透过事件看到众人们没有注意到的事情。机器翻译)
It helps you to uncover root causes of why those events happen.
(它帮助你发现这些事件发生的根本原因。 )
That's possible by looking at deeper levels of abstraction within the system that are not immediately obvious.
(这可以通过观察系统内不太明显的更深层次的抽象而实现。机器翻译)

How to use it （如何使用它）

Iceberg model consists of four levels:（冰山模型由四个层次组成：）

• Events（事件）
• Patterns（模式）
• Structures （结构）
• Mental models （心理模型 心智模型是否更好？）

（图片模型需要翻译）

Looking below individual events,
(在单个事件下)
you can see trends over time—patterns.
(你可以看到时间模式下的事件趋势)
They are the clue for understanding the system structures that are behind those patterns.
(它们是理解这些模式背后的系统结构的线索。)
Structures are the relationships and feedback loops inside a system.
(结构是一个系统内部的 关系 与 反馈回路 。机器翻译)
These structures are in turn based on the underlying mental models of people.
(这些结构又是基于人们的基本心智模式。)
Events and patterns show you what is happening.
(事件和模式会告诉你什么事情可能会发生)
Structures and mental models tell you why it's happening.
(结构和心智模型会告诉你这件事为什么会发生)
The deeper you can go in the iceberg, the more leverage you'll have.
(你能在冰山上走的越深，将会有更多的判断条件)

Investigate all four levels （调查所有四个层面）

Here are some questions to help you understand each level within a certain problem or situation.
（这里有一些问题可以帮助你了解某个问题或情况下的每个层次。）

• Events:（事件）
  • What is happening right now?（现在正在发生什么？）
• Patterns:（模式）
  • What has been happening over time? What are the trends?（随着时间的推移，已经发生了什么事件？事件的趋势是什么？）
• Structures:（结构）
  • What's influencing these patterns?（是什么在影响这些模式）
  • Where are the connections between patterns?（模式之间有什么联系？）
• Mental models:（心智模型）
  • What values, beliefs or assumptions shape the system? （哪些价值观，信仰或假设形成了这个系统）

It's important to note that answering these questions
（值得注意的是回答这些问题）
will likely require some research and digging.
（将可能需要一些研究和挖掘）
Especially when it comes to the mental models which are hard to document,let alone see in plain sight.
（ 特别是当涉及到心理模型时，这些模型很难被记录下来，更不用说在明处看到了。）

Example of the Iceberg model by Justin Farrugia

Example （举个栗子）

Let's look at a real-world example to better understand how the iceberg model works.
(让我们看看一个真实的例子，以更好地理解冰山模型的工作原理。)
Suppose there are a couple of bugs in the feature your product team just released.
(假设你的产品团队刚刚发布的功能中有几个bug。)
That's a single event. Your instinct might be to react to it and start fixing them.
(这是一个单一的事件。你的本能可能是对它做出反应并开始修复它们。)
That's obviously not enough if you want to prevent it from happening in the future.
(如果你想防止它在未来发生，这显然是不够的。)
If you look back in time, you see that every released feature comes with several bugs.
(如果你回顾一下时间，你会发现每一个发布的功能都会伴随着几个bug。)
That's a pattern. Digging deeper, you find that teams don't plan for testing before releasing a feature.
(这是一种模式。深入挖掘，你会发现团队在发布一个功能之前并没有计划进行测试。)
The QA only happens after a release. Teams also typically have tight deadlines to ship a feature.
(QA质量管理只发生在发布之后。团队通常也有很紧的最后期限来发布一个功能。翻译不佳)
These are structures of the system.
(这些都是系统的结构。)
Investigating further, you discover that teams value shipping on time over the quality of their work.
(进一步调查后，你发现团队对能够准时发布的重视程度超过了他们对工作质量的把握。)
The tight deadlines are imposed by managers and teams believe it's not their place to push back.
(紧迫的最后期限是由管理人员规定的并且团队认为这不是他们的职责所在。)
As you can see, by looking beyond immediate events,
(如你所见，透过眼前的事件)
you are able to find a root cause of a problem.
(你能够找到问题的根本原因)
You now have much more leverage for solving the problem.
(你现在有更多的分析条件去解决这个问题)

Balancing feedback loop 平衡反馈回路

Mechanism that pushes back against a change to create stability.
(对变化进行反推以创造稳定的机制。Connection circles)
Balancing feedback loop is a mechanism that resists further changes in one direction.
(平衡反馈回路是一种机制，它抵制在一个方向上的进一步变化。)
It counters change in one direction with a change in the opposite direction.
(它以反方向的变化来对抗一个方向的变化。)
It seeks to stabilize a system.
(他试图稳定一个系统)
Often in systems, you will find this balancing loop together with the reinforcing feedback loop,
(通常在系统中，你会发现这种平衡回路与强化反馈回路 一起出现。 )
which does the opposite and creates exponential changes.
(后者的作用正好相反，会产生指数性的变化。)

How balancing loops work (平衡回路的工作原理)

Balancing feedback loops have three important components:(平衡反馈回路有以下三个部分组成)

• the goal or desired level (目标或者预期水平)
• the actual level (实际水平)
• the gap between those two (两个水平之间的差距)

When the balancing loop sees a gap,
(当在平衡回路中发现一个缺口时)
it will trigger corrective actions to bring the actual level of something closer to the desired level.
(它将触发纠正措施,使实际水平接近预期水平)
The key to understanding a specific balancing loop is finding out its goal.
(了解一个具体的平衡回路的关键在于找出它的目标)
That may not always explicit or immediately visible.
(这可能并不总是很明确或者能够立刻发现它)

Example

The thermostat is a very practical example of a balancing feedback loop.
(温控器是一个非常实用的平衡反馈回路的例子。)
It monitors the temperature in a room (the actual level) and
(它监测房间里的温度（实际水平），)
when it goes below or above a certain threshold (the desired level),
(当它低于或高于某个阈值（期望水平）时，)
it will start to heat or cool the room to keep the temperature within the thresholds.
(它将开始加热或冷却房间，以保持温度在阈值之内。)

In this case, the whole loop is intentional and the corrective action is designed.
(在这种情况下，整个循环是有意为之，并设计了纠正行动。 )
You will also find many natural balancing loops.
(你还会发现许多自然的平衡循环。 )
Take the cooling of tea for example.
(以茶的冷却为例。 )
When you make tea and leave it be,
(当你泡茶并让它静止时。 )
it will gradually cool down from its initially high temperature (the actual level) until it reaches the room temperature (the desired level).
(它将逐渐从最初的 高的温度（实际水平），直到它达到室温（理想水平）。 )

In this case, the corrective action would be the heat transfer
(在这种情况下，纠正措施将是茶叶和周围空气之间的热传递。 )
between the tea and the air around.
(这杯茶 和 周围空气之间的热量转移。 )
This will happen naturally, there's no intention behind it.
(这将自然而然的发生，背后没有任何意图。)

Takeaway

Balancing feedback loops seek to stabilize systems.
(平衡反馈回路需求稳定系统。)
They trigger corrective actions to reach a certain goal – they're self-correcting.
(它们触发纠正行动以达到某个目标--它们是自我纠正的。 )
They are the opposite of the reinforcing feedback loops, which produce exponential changes.
(它们与产生指数变化的强化反馈环路相反。)

Sources

"Thinking in Systems: A Primer" by Donnella Meadows
"Visualizing the systems behind our designs" by Justin Farrugia
"Reinforcing and Balancing loops: Building blocks of dynamic systems" on Systems Thinker
"Balancing loops basics" on Systems Thinker

Reinforcing feedback loop 强化反馈循环

Understand the force behind exponential changes.
(了解指数型变化背后的力量。关联 Connection circles)
Reinforcing feedback loops are found whenever behaviours
(当循环内的行为或事件相互加强时，就会发现强化反馈循环。)
or events inside the loop reinforce one another.
(或者循环回路内的事件相互加强)
These loops amplify the effect of the process.
(这些回路放大了过程的影响)

That's a mouthful, but you can find real-world examples all around you.
(这是一个口述概念，但你可以在你周围找到现实世界的例子。)
The compound interest is a very common one. The more money you have in the bank,
(比如复利是很常见的一种强化反馈回路。你在银行存的钱越多,)
the more you earn on interest. That money is added to your balance and so you earn on interest even more.
(你赚的利息就越多。这些钱会加到你的余额中，所以你的利息收入就更多。)

Effects of reinforcing feedback loops are exponential, not linear.
(强化反馈回路的影响是指数级的,而不是线性的)
They lead to exponential increases or decreases,
(他会导致指数级的增长或者减少)
whereas balancing feedback loops lead to plateaus – their goal is stability.
(然而平衡反馈回路会导致 高原反应 这个翻译不准确- 他们的目标是稳定的)
Often, these two loops exist together within a system.
(通常, 这两个反馈回路在一个系统中同时存在)

How reinforcing feedback loops work (强化反馈回路是如何工作的呢?)

The basic characteristic of all feedback loops is that the output of one cycle is the input for the next cycle.
(所有的反馈回路的基本特征是,一个周期的输出是下一个周期的输出,{此处想到项目经理的的 输入 工具 数据 ITTO 图})
In the case of reinforcing loops, this input amplifies the next output.
(在强化回路的情况下,这个输入会放大下一个输出.)

Inside the loop, there are at least two variables. These variables reinforce each other.
（在反馈回路里面至少有两个变量，这些变量相互加强。）
However, there can be also external variables that influence the loop.
（然而，也可以有影响循环外的变量）
It's best to illustrate this with a simple example.
（最好用一个例子来说明这一点）

Example （举一个例子）

The compound interest is a very common example of a reinforcing feedback loop.
（投资复利是一个非常常见的强化反馈回路的例子）
The more money you have in a bank account, the more you earn on interest.
（你在银行账号中的钱越多，你的挣到的利息收入越多）
That money is added to your balance and so you earn on interest even more later on. The cycle repeats.
（这笔钱利息收入存入到你的余额中，所以你以后回赚更多的利息。循环往复。）

In this example, you have two variables inside the loop: the balance on the account and the interest earnings.
An external variable influences this loop – the interest rate.
（在这个例子中，在你的循环内存在两个变量：账户余额和利息收入。一个外部变量影响着这个循环--利率）。
This variable will influence the output of the feedback loop but doesn't change the core mechanism of the loop.
（这个变量将会影响反馈回路的输出，但不改变回路的核心机制）

Takeaway

Reinforcing feedback loop is a key tool for understanding systems because it's everywhere.
（强化反馈回路是一个理解系统的关键工具，因为他无处不在。）
It explains exponential changes.
（它解释了指数性质的变化）

In reality, systems are often made up of some combination of reinforcing feedback loops and balancing feedback loops,
（在现实中，系统往往是由强化反馈环路和平衡反馈环路的某种组合构成的，）
so it's useful to learn about both.
（因此，学习这两种环路是很有用的。）

Sources

"Thinking in Systems: A Primer" by Donnella Meadows
"Visualizing the systems behind our designs" by Justin Farrugia
"Feedback loops" by James Clear
"Reinforcing and Balancing loops: Building blocks of dynamic systems" on Systems Thinker

如何做决定

Cynefin framework Cynefin 框架

Make sense of different situations to choose an appropriate response.
(对不同的情况作出判断，以选择适当的反应。)

Different situations typically require different responses.
(不同的情况通常需要不同的反应。)
The Cynefin framework (pronounced /kəˈnɛvɪn/ - "kuh-nev-in") is there
(Cynefin框架（发音为/kəˈnɛvɪn/ - "kuh-nev-in"）在这里)
to help you make sense of the situation in front of you
(是用来帮助你了解你面前的情况)
and make a decision that's appropriate for the type of situation you're dealing with.
(，并做出适合你所处理的情况类型的决定。)
It was developed by Dave Snowden in 1999.
(它是由戴夫-斯诺登在1999年开发的。)

How to use it

The framework identifies five domains to categorise problems or situations:
(这个框架确定了五个领域对问题或者情况进行分类)
clear, complicated, complex, chaotic and disorder.
(清晰的,事物，系统或过程的复杂,状态或处境，也用以描述人和生物的复杂,混乱的和无序的)
The idea is to identify which domain you're in and then choose the appropriate
(这个想法是要确定你处于哪个领域，然后根据其特点选择适当的行动。)
action based on its characteristics. So let's look at each domain in detail.
(基于其特点的行动。因此，让我们详细了解一下每个领域。)

Clear （清晰领域）

Also known as obvious or simple, this is the domain of best practices.
(也可以理解成明显或者简单，这是最佳实践的领域)
This is where problems are familiar and clearly defined,
(这是对问题熟悉和明确的定义)
cause-and-effect relationships are clear and the situations are stable.
(因果关系是明确的，情况是稳定的)
Many process-oriented situations and problems would fall into this domain. It's a domain of "known knowns".
(许多面向过程的情况和问题都属于这个领域，这是一个"已知的已知"的领域)
Solutions are usually clear in these situations and don't require much expertise.
(在这些情况下，解决方案通常已经非常明显并不需要太多的专业知识)
The right approach would be sense–categorise–respond: understand the situation (sense),
(正确的方法应该是 感知-分类-回应：了解局势情况（感知）)
categorize it, then respond by applying a best-practice solution.
(对其进行分类，然后通过应用最佳实践解决方案进行回应。)

Complicated （过程复杂领域）

In this domain, there might be multiple right answers but aren't immediately visible.
(在这个领域，可能存在多个正确答案，但是那些不是能够立刻发现的。)
It's a domain of "known unknowns" – when questions are clear but it takes work to answer them.
(这是一个 "已知未知数 "的领域--当问题很清楚，但要回答它们需要付出努力。 )
That's why the best approach is to sense-analyze-respond. Because analysis is needed,
(这就是为什么最好的方法是感知-分析-回应。因为需要分析。)
the situations here typically require expert knowledge. Experts should assess the situation,
(这里的情况通常需要专家知识。应该通过专家评估情况)
investigate possible options and choose a course of action.
(调查可能的选项并选择行动方案。)

Complex （事物状态复杂领域）

In this domain, there are "unknown unknowns". The situation cannot be understood by analysis
(在这个领域，存在着"未知的未知"。这种情况不能够通过分析来理解)
because we don't yet know enough about it. It's not clear what needs to be answered in the first place.
(因为我们没有对他有足够的了解，它不能够清楚首先需要了解的问题是什么。)

So the right approach is to experiment first, learn about the problem.
(所以正确的做法是首先做实验，学习了解具体的问题)
Then sense what you're dealing with and respond appropriately.
(然后感知你正在处理的问题并作出适当的反应)
The goal should be to understand enough so that the problem
(首要目标是足够了解问题的信息，从而使问题或者)
or situation moves to the complicated domain where it's easier to deal with.
(局势转移到更容易处理的过程复杂领域中去)

Chaotic 混乱

When things aren't under control, the situation falls into the chaotic domain.
(当事情不受控制时，局势就会落入混乱的领域中)
It's when cause and effect relationships are unclear.
(这是在当因果关系不明确的时候)
Here it's necessary to first act to establish some stability,to contain the situation.
(在这里有必要首先采取行动，建立一些局势的稳定性，以控制局势。)
Only then assess the situation and work on bringing enough order to it to move it into the complex domain. Act–sense–respond.
(然后再评估局势，努力为其带来足够的秩序，使其进入复杂领域。行动-感知-反应。)
The chaotic domain also presents an opportunity to try novel solutions
(混乱领域也提供了一个去尝试新的解决方案的机会)
as people might be more open to them in this context.
(因为在这种情况下，人们可能会对它们更加开放)

###Disorder 无序
If you don't know where you stand, you're in the disorder domain.
(如果你不知道你所处的领域，那么你现在处于无序领域)
The goal should be to quickly identify the right domain and move forward from there.
(当前目标应该是快速确定正确的领域，并向那个领域推进。)
It can be helpful to break down the problem or situation into multiple parts and assign each to a specific domain.
(将问题或情况分解成多个部分，并将每个部分分配给一个特定的领域，这可能会有帮助。)

###Determining which domain you're in 确定你所处的领域
It's best to get more familiar with each domain to learn
(最好对每个领域加以学习熟悉)
when characteristics of a problem/situation apply to a particular domain.
(当一个问题/情况的特征适用于一个特定的领域。)
The sources below are a good place to start.
(下面的来源是一个很好的开始。)

Here's a set of questions that can also help point you to the right domain:
(这里有一组问题，也可以帮助你指向正确的领域。)

• Do you know what causes the situation?
  (你知道是什么原因导致了这种情况吗？)
• Is the situation under control?
  (情况是否得到控制？)
• How much do you know about it?
  (你对它了解多少？)
• Does solving it require expert knowledge?
  (解决这个问题是否需要专家知识？)

Takeaway

The key idea of the Cynefin framework is that different kinds of situations or problems require different kinds of responses.
(Cynefin 框架的关键思想是：不同种类的情况局势或问题需要不同种类的反应。)
You should identify what kind of a situation you're dealing with and—with the help of this framework—choose an appropriate response.
(你应该确认你正在处理什么样的情况或者局势，并在这个框架的帮助下选择一个适当的反应。)

Sources

"A Leader's Framework for Decisions Making" on Harvard Business Review
"Understanding the Cynefin framework" on Everyday Kanban
"Cynefin framework" on Wikipedia
"Cynefin framework template" on Miro

Six Thinking Hats 六顶思考的帽子

Look at a decision from different perspectives
(从不同的角度来看待一个决定)
Making the best decisions often requires looking at them through different lenses
(作出最好的决定往往需要通过不同的角度去看待他们，)
so that you don't overlook an important aspect.
(这样子你就不会忽视一些重要的方面)
Six Thinking Hats,created by Edward de Bono,
("六顶思考帽 是由爱德华-德-波诺创建的)
is a tool for doing exactly that.
(正是这样一种工具)
You can use it for your own thinking or in a group where everyone can represent a different perspective.
(你可以把它用于你自己的思考，或者在一个小组中，每个人都可以代表不同的观点。)

###How to use it
Each thinking hat represents one lens/perspective/style of thinking.
(每一顶帽子都代表一种思考的镜头/视角/风格)
Try "wearing" different hats and look at the decision through each.
(尝试带上不同的帽子，并透过他们去看待这个决定)
If you're in a group, you can assign the hats to everyone to get a balanced discussion.
(如果你是在一个小组里，你可以把帽子分给每个人，已获得均衡的讨论)
Or you can go through different perspectives as a whole group.
(或者你可以作为一个整体去看待不同的观点)

Here's what each hat is about:(以下是关于每个帽子思考的内容)

🟡 Yellow hat is about positivity. Try seeing the benefits of this decision and what opportunities it opens.
(🟡 黄帽子是关于积极性的。试着看到这个决定的好处，以及它所带来的机会。)

🟢 Green hat represents creativity. Let your mind run free and generate ideas without censoring them.
Try coming up with creative options and solutions.
Tools like the Productive Thinking Model or First Principles can help you.
(🟢 绿帽子代表创造力。让你的思想自由驰骋，产生想法而不加以审查。试着想出有创意的方案和解决办法。
生产性思维模式或第一原则等工具可以帮助你。)

🔴 Red hat is about emotions. How do you feel about this? Use your intuition and gut feelings.
Try to see how others might react emotionally. It's a great way to bring emotions into an otherwise rational process.
(🔴 红帽子是关于情感的。你对此有什么感觉？利用你的直觉和直觉。试着看看别人可能会有什么情绪上的反应。这是一个将情感带入其他理性过程的好方法。)

⚪️ White hat makes you focus on the data. Analyze the available data and trends. This represents a very rational approach.
(⚪️ 白帽子使你专注于数据。分析现有的数据和趋势。这代表了一种非常理性的方法。 )

⚫️ Black hat represents looking at the downside. What are the worst-case scenarios? Take a defensive approach,
imagine any potentially negative outcomes, see what might not work. Inversion might be a helpful tool here.
(⚫️ 黑帽代表着眼于负面的情况。最坏的情况是什么？采取防御性方法。想象任何潜在的负面结果，看看什么可能不奏效。在这里，反转可能是一个有用的工具。)

🔵 Blue hat is for controlling the process. Especially in meetings,
it's good to be able to step in when there's no progress and enable
the group to move forward (e.g. by shifting the thinking or discussion to a different hat/perspective).
(🔵 蓝帽子是用来控制过程的。特别是在会议上。特别是在会议中，能够在没有进展的时候介入并使进展的时候能够介入，使小组能够继续前进（例如，通过将思维或讨论转移到不同的帽子/角度）。)

###Example (举个例子)
Let's see how using this tool might play out in an example scenario.
(让我们看看在例子中如何使用这个工具。)
Suppose you're in a management meeting to decide if you should introduce a new product to your portfolio to battle declining sales.
(假如你在一个管理会议上决定是否应该在你的产品组合中引入一个新产品，以应对不断下降的销售。)
You use the Six Thinking Hats tool to make sure the decision is considered from all possible angles.
(你使用 "六顶思考帽 "工具来确保从所有可能的角度考虑这个决定。)

Starting with the yellow hat, you discuss the sizable chunk of the market that this new product might cater to.
(从带上黄帽子(积极好的角度)开始,你讨论到这个新产品可能迎合的相当大的一块市场。)
It's a big opportunity for capturing a lot of revenue.
(这是一个获得巨大受益的好机会。)

You switch to the black hat to look at possible downsides:
(你切换成黑色的帽子(不好负面的角度)去研究可能产生的缺点或者负面不好的地方：)
what if the new product cannibalizes our existing products?
(如果新产品吞并了我们现有的产品怎么办？)
What if it doesn't offer enough value for people to buy it?
(如果他不能提供足够的吸引力价值让人们购买怎么办？ 这里翻译欠缺)

A person wearing the white hat points out that the data you have about the market shows several unmet needs.
(一个带着白帽子的成员指出，你所掌握的关于市场的数据显示出几个未满足的需求。)
It also shows that the declining sales of the existing products signal a trend that the market as a whole is moving to different solutions.
(它还表明，现有产品的销量下降预示着整个市场正在向不同的解决方案发展的趋势。)

Wearing the yellow hat again, you see that the unmet needs in the market represent a solid opportunity and it's supported by data.
(再次带上黄色的帽子，你看到市场上未被满足的需求代表了一个坚实的机会，而且有数据上的支持。)
Considering the possible downsides,
(考虑到可能出现的负面问题，)
you ask: How might we make sure the new product offers enough value?
(你问："我们如何确保新产品提供产生出足够的价值？" 这里翻译欠缺)

You put on the green hat and generate ideas for how you might prototype the new product and test its value with people.
(你戴上绿色的帽子，为你如何制作新产品的原型和向人们测试其价值产生想法。)

Because the meeting has been running for a while now,
(由于会议已经进行了一段时间，)
the facilitator wearing the blue hat suggests postponing the decision until the new product is validated with people.
(戴蓝帽子的主持人建议推迟决定，直到新产品得到人们的验证。)

The group decides to wear the red hat to do a check how everyone feels about this plan.
(小组决定戴上红帽子，检查一下大家对这个计划的看法。)
People agree that it's a high-stakes decision and it feels right to lower the risk before making the decision.
(大家一致认为这是一个高风险的决定，在做这个决定之前感觉降低风险是一个正确的选择。)
They're less anxious about it now.
(他们现在的焦虑少了一些)

In this example, the group arrived at a reasonable next step toward making this decision.
(在这个例子中，小组达成了一个合理的下一步决定。)
Using the Six Thinking Hats, every perspective was heard
(使用 "六顶思考帽"，每个人的观点都被听到了，)
and the outcome was made possible by discussing the different perspectives.
(并且通过讨论不同的观点，使结果成为可能。)

###Key takeaway
Six Thinking Hats is a tool that allows you to consider a decision or problem from different angles.
(六顶思考帽是一种工具，让你从不同的角度考虑一个决定或问题)
It enables you to deliberately see aspects you might otherwise overlook,
(它使你能够有意识地看到你可能忽略的方面, )
making your decision better and more resilient in the end.
(使你的决定最终变得更好，更有弹性。)

If you want to find out more about the Six Thinking Hats,
(如果你想了解更多关于六顶思考帽的信息, )
Edward de Bono's book with the same title is the best place.
(爱德华-德波诺的同名书籍是最好的地方。)

Sources

"Six Thinking Hats" by Edward de Bono

Second-order thinking 二阶思维

Consider the long-term consequences of your decisions.
(考虑你的决定的长期后果。)
Some decisions seem like wins at first, but turn out to be losses over time.
(有些决定一开始看起来是赢得,但是随着时间的推移,却变成了损失.)
What seems like an investment now turns out to be a liability later.
(现在看起来是一项投资,后来却变成一种负担.)
What looked like a good decision earlier is now a bad one.
(先前看起来是个好的决定,现在看起来确是一个坏的决定)
Second-order thinking is a tool that will help you examine the long-term effects of your decisions.
(二阶思维是一种工具,它将帮助你检查你的决定的长期影响.)

Most people stop at first-order thinking. Second-order thinking is necessary to make decisions that will stand the test of time.
(大多数人止步于一阶思考.二阶思考对于做出经得起时间考验的决定是必要的.)

We need to make sure we're okay with more long-term consequences of our decisions today.
(我们需要确保我们能接受我们今天做的决定所带来的更多长期后果。)

###How to use it?
Using second-order thinking can be a purely mental exercise or you can write it down on paper.
(适用二阶思维可以是一种纯粹的心智练习,也可以把它写在纸上.)
Consider a decision you have to make. Start by looking at the most immediate effects of making this decision – the first order.
(考虑一下你必须做出的决定,首先看一下做出这个决定的最直接的影响--第一顺序)
Then for each of the effect ask yourself: "And then what?"
(然后对每个人影响问自己:"然后呢?")
That's how you examine the second order of this decision's consequences.
(这就是你检查这个决定的第二阶后果的方法.)
You can repeat this for as many orders as you find practical.
(你可以对你认为实用的多个顺序重复这样做.)
Alternatively, think about the decision in different timelines.
(或者,在不同的时间轴上思考这个决定)
Ask yourself: What will be the consequences of this decision in
(问问你自己:这个决定在 10 分钟,10 个月,10 年后会有什么后果? )

• 10 minutes?
• 10 months?
• 10 years?

This way you can think about the short-term, medium-term and long-term consequences of your decision.
(这样，你就可以思考你的决定的短期、中期和长期后果。)

You can apply second-order thinking on big decisions (e.g. buying a house),
(你可以将二阶思维运用到大的决定(比如买房子),)
but also small, seemingly mundane, decisions (e.g. eating a cake).
(也可以应用于小的,看起来很平凡的决定(比如吃蛋糕),)
It's a very universal tool that is relevant not just in personal life,
(这是一个非常普遍的工具,不仅仅适用于个人生活,)
but also in business or policy-making.
(也适用于商业或者政策指定.)

###Second-order thinking in practice
Let's explore what second-order thinking looks like in action.
(让我们探讨一下二阶思维在实际行动中的应用.)
Consider the decision of buying a house outside of the city.
(考虑一下在城外买房子这个决定.)

The immediate effects might be having a garden, more space for your family,
(直接影响可能是拥有一个花园,为家人提供更多的活动空间,)
but also suddenly living an hour away from work.
(但是也突然住在离工作一个小时的地方.)

Now look at higher-order consequences of each:
(现在看看每种情况的高阶后果。)

having a garden → able to grow your produce → having fresh herbs and vegetables
(有一个花园->能够种植自己的产物->有一些新鲜的草药和蔬菜)
more space for family → more rooms to clean → more stress from a messy home
(为家人提供更多的空间→有更多的房间要打扫→家里乱糟糟的压力更大 )
living an hour away from work → need to buy a car → spending two hours of each day in a car
(住在离工作地点一小时路程的地方→需要买车→每天花两个小时在车上)
Obviously, this is just a small subset of consequences for such a big decision,
(显然，这只是这样一个重大决定的一小部分后果，)
but it shows how second-order thinking can help you see the more long-term consequences.
(但它表明二阶思维可以帮助你看到更长期的后果。)
You can now make a more informed and thoughtful decision.
(你现在可以做出一个更明智、更周到的决定。)

###Source
"Second-order thinking" by Shane Parrish
"The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks

Eisenhower Matrix 艾森豪威尔矩阵

Prioritize your actions and tasks by importance and urgency
(按照重要性和紧迫性对你的行动和任务进行优先排序 )

Named after U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower,
(以美国总统德怀特-D-艾森豪威尔的名字命名)
this prioritization framework will help you organize your tasks and activities by importance and urgency.
(这个优先级框架将帮助你按重要性和紧迫性组织你的任务和活动。)
It's especially useful when you're very busy but don't feel like what you do has much impact.
(当你很忙但又觉得你所做的事情没有特别大的影响时，它就特别有用。)

###How to use it?
The Eisenhower Matrix has four quadrants along two axes: importance and urgency.
(艾森豪威尔矩阵沿着两条轴有四个象限：重要性和紧迫性。)

For every activity or task, ask yourself: It is important or not? Is it urgent or not?
(对于每一项活动或任务，问自己:"它是重要的还是不重要的？它是紧急还是不紧急？")

Based on the answer, place the activity/task in the right quadrant. The quadrant determines what you should do with the task:
(根据上面的回答,将该活动/任务放在正确的象限内。该象限决定了你应该对该任务做什么。)

1. Important and urgent → Do it
   (重要并且紧急-> 去执行)
   These are the tasks that you want to do as soon as possible.
   (这些是你想要尽快完成的任务。)
   Crises, pressing problems and other things where not acting now has negative consequences.
   (危机、紧迫的问题和其他现在不采取行动就会产生负面影响的事情。)
2. Important but not urgent → Schedule it
   (重要但是不紧急->计划安排他它)
   Find a time for these tasks and do them then.
   (规划好时间,然后去做这些任务)
   This quadrant is typically where deep work happens – tasks that contribute to your projects or long-term goals.
   (这个象限通常是发生深度工作的地方--有助于你的项目或长期目标的任务。)
3. Urgent but not important → Delegate it
   (紧急但是不重要->交给别人去做)
   If you can, find someone who can do these tasks for you.
   (如果可以的话，找一个可以为你做这些工作的人。)
   If you can't delegate it, schedule it but always try to do the important-but-not-urgent tasks first.
   (如果你不能委派，那就安排一下，但总是尽量先做那些重要但不紧急的任务)
   These are often administrative tasks or things that have deadlines but aren't critical.
   (这些通常是行政任务或有最后期限但并不关键的事情。)
4. Not urgent and not important → Don't do it
   (不紧急也不重要->不要去做)
   These tasks aren't worth your time and you shouldn't do them at all.
   (这些任务不值得你花时间，你根本就不应该做。)
   Avoidance activities, busy work and entertainment goes into this quadrant.
   (逃避的活动、忙碌的工作和娱乐都属于这个象限。)
   This is also the order of the priority of your tasks. Yes, important-but-not-urgent tasks come before urgent-but-not-important.
   (这也是你任务的优先顺序。是的，重要但不紧急的任务排在 紧急但不重要的任务之前。)

Eisenhower matrix is very flexible so it's up to you if you use it for professional tasks, personal ones or both.
(艾森豪威尔矩阵非常灵活，所以取决于你是否将其用于专业任务、个人任务或两者。)

You can also work with it on different timescales: planning your day vs. generally prioritizing activities in your life.
(你也可以在不同的时间尺度上使用它：计划你的一天与一般的生活活动的优先次序。)

How do you tell urgent tasks from important ones? (你如何区分紧急任务和重要任务？)

Urgent tasks typically have a clear deadline (e.g. sending a draft to a client) or require you to react in a timely fashion (e.g. emails).
(紧急任务通常有一个明确的截止日期（例如，向客户发送草稿）或要求你及时做出反应（例如，电子邮件）。)
Important tasks tend to be aligned with your long-term goals (e.g. exercising) and push your projects forward (e.g. writing code for your side project).
(重要任务往往与你的长期目标相一致（如锻炼身体），并推动你的项目向前发展（如为你的副业项目写代码）。)

Determining urgency and importance will always depend on your context and your ability to recognize what's truly urgent and truly important.
(确定 紧迫性 和 重要性 将始终取决于你的背景和你识别什么是真正的紧迫性和真正的重要性的能力。)

Example

Here are some examples of activities and tasks that might go into the Eisenhower Matrix:
(下面是一些可能进入艾森豪威尔矩阵的活动和任务的例子。 )

	Urgent(紧急)	Not urgent(不紧急)
Important(重要)	Do:Finish a report that's due Send draft to client Fix a bug (做到：完成一份到期的报告 把草稿发给客户 修复一个错误)	Schedule:Design a new feature Write a blog post Exercise (计划：设计一个新功能 写一篇博文 练习)
Not important(不重要)	Delegate/schedule for later: Buy a conference ticket Schedule an interview Reply to emails (委托/安排以后的工作 购买会议门票 安排采访 回复邮件)	Don't do:Attend a meeting with no agenda Read #random Check social media (不要做：参加没有议程的会议 阅读#随机查看社交媒体)

Takeaway

The promise of the Eisenhower Matrix is to make you more productive by setting the right priorities and acting on them.
(艾森豪威尔矩阵的承诺是，通过设定正确的优先事项并付诸行动，使你的工作效率更高)
If you're always busy but don't get anywhere on your long-term projects and goals,
(如果你总是很忙，但在你的长期项目和目标上没有任何进展，)
this tool is definitely for you. But it's also a generally useful tool for deciding what to work on
(这个工具绝对适合你.但它也是一个普遍有用的工具，可用于决定哪些事情要做，)
and what to eliminate from your life.
(并且哪些事情要从你的生活中消除。)

Sources

"How to be More Productive and Eliminate Time Wasting Activities by
Using the “Eisenhower Box” " by James Clear
"The Eisenhower Matrix" on Todoist

Ladder of inference 推理的阶梯

Avoid jumping to conclusions. Make decisions based on reality.
(避免急于下结论。根据现实做出决定)
We act and make decisions based on the conclusions we make.
(我们根据自己的结论采取行动并做出决定。)
But we tend to jump to these conclusions and skip important parts of the reasoning process.
(但我们倾向于跳到这些结论，并跳过推理过程中的重要部分。)

Ladder of inference, developed by a former Harvard professor Chris Argyris,
(推理阶梯，由前哈佛大学教授Chris Argyris开发的 )
is a tool that helps you fill the gaps in your thinking and make decisions based on reality.
(是一个帮助你填补思维空白并根据现实做出决定的工具。)
It's also helpful to challenge the thinking of others and reach better conclusions together.
(它也有助于挑战他人的思维，共同达成更好的结论。)

The ladder (梯子)

There are 7 steps on the ladder that represent our mental processes. Here's what it looks like from the bottom up:
(梯子上有7个台阶，代表我们的心理过程。下面是它从下往上看的情况。)

Available data (可用数据)
This is the reality we are able to observe.
(这就是我们所能观察到的现实。)
Selected data (选择数据)
We select what we pay attention to based on our prior experiences and existing beliefs.
(我们根据以前的经验和现有的信念来选择我们关注的内容。)
We don't have the mental capacity to take in every piece of data available, so we have to make this selection.
(我们没有足够的心智能力来接受每一个可用的数据，所以我们必须做出这种选择。 )

Interpretations (解释)
We give facts meaning. We paraphrase what we see or hear to make sense of it.
(我们赋予事实以意义。我们对看到或听到的东西进行转述，使其具有意义。)

Assumptions (假设/推测)
Based on our interpretation, we make our own personal assumptions.
(基于我们的解释，我们做出了自己的个人假设。)

Conclusions (结论)
We draw conclusions from our assumptions.
(我们从我们的假设中得出结论。)

Beliefs (信念)
Our beliefs are then developed from the conclusions we make.
(我们的信念就是从我们的结论中发展出来的。)

Actions (行动)
Finally, we take actions that are rooted in what we believe to be true.
(最后，我们采取植根于我们所相信的真实的行动。 )

These processes usually happen unconsciously and very quickly in our brain.
(这些过程通常在我们的大脑中无意识地、非常迅速地发生。)
Applying this ladder consciously allows you to take a step back and see where you're jumping to conclusions.
(有意识地应用这个阶梯，可以让你退后一步，看看你在哪里下了结论。)

How to use it? (如何使用它)

Whenever you make a conclusion about something or are making decisions based on your conclusions,
(每当你对某件事情作出结论，或根据你的结论作出决定时,)
it's good to stop and question your reasoning.
(最好停下来质疑你的推理。)

First, identify on which step of the ladder you currently are. Are you about to take action and
(首先，确定你目前处于阶梯的哪一步,你是否准备采取行动)
you're not sure if it's the right one? Or perhaps you're aware of some of the assumptions you're making?
(，但你不确定这是否正确？ 或者是你意识到了你所做的一些假设？)

Then work your way down before building your reasoning up again.
(那么，在再次建立你的推理之前，你要先向下努力。)
To work your way down the ladder, use these guiding questions for each step:
(要沿着梯子往下走，每一步都要使用这些指导性问题。)

• Actions:(行动)

  • Why do I believe this to be the right action? What are some alternative options?
    (为什么我认为这是一个正确的行动？有哪些其他选择？)

• Beliefs:(信念)

  • What beliefs do I hold about this? What conclusions are they based on?
    (我对此持有什么信念？它们是基于什么结论？)

• Conclusions:(结论)

  • Why did I conclude this? What are my assumptions there?
    (我为什么会得出这样的结论？我在那里的假设是什么？)

• Assumptions:(假设/推测)

  • Are my assumptions valid? Why am I assuming this?
    (我的假设有效吗？我为什么要这样假设？)

• Interpretations:(解释)

  • Am I looking at this data objectively? What other meanings could they have?
    (我是在客观地看待这些数据吗？它们还能有什么其他含义？)

• Selected data:(选择数据)

  • What did I ignore or didn't pay attention to? Are there other sources of data I didn't consider?
    (我忽略了什么或没有注意到什么？是否有其他我没有考虑的数据来源？ )

  As you answer these, you may find that your reasoning changes along the way and that's good.
  (当你回答这些问题时,你可能会发现你的推论方式在一路上发生了变化，这很好。)
  When you reach the bottom of the ladder,
  (当你触及到阶梯的底部时)
  work your way back up again, this time more consciously and deliberately.
  (再往上走，这一次要更有意识地、刻意地走。翻译欠佳)

Example

Let's see how applying the ladder of inference looks like on a practical example.
(让我们看看在一个实际的例子中如何应用推理的阶梯。)

Suppose I'm managing a team of developers. One of them hasn't been performing well recently.
(假设我正在管理一个由开发人员组成的团队,其中一个人最近表现不佳。)
He's been missing deadlines and several projects were delayed because of this.
(他一直在错过最后期限，有几个项目因此被推迟了。)
I conclude he's not cut out for the job and decide to fire him.
(我断定他不适合这份工作，决定解雇他。)

However, I stop and ask myself: Is this the right thing to do?
(然而，我停下来问自己。这样做对吗？)
I can now apply the ladder of inference to unpack my thinking and perhaps make a better decision.
(我现在可以运用推理的阶梯来解读我的想法，或许能做出更好的决定。)
I ask myself the guiding questions:
(我问自己一些指导性的问题。)

Why do I believe that firing this person is the right action?
(为什么我相信解雇他是一个正确的决定)
Because it's clear to me he's not right for the job.
(因为在我看来太显然不太适合这份工作)
What conclusions is this belief based on? That he's not a good developer.
(我的这种想法基于什么结论?他不是一个好的开发者)
What are my assumptions here? I assumed that his recent results are representative of his qualities (or lack thereof).
(我在这里的推测依据是什么? 我假设他最近的工作绩效能代表他的品质（或缺乏品质　翻译欠佳）。)
Why am I assuming this? Because missed deadlines mean he's not efficient.
(我为什么要这样假设推测呢？因为错过最后期限意味着他没有效率。)
What other meanings could the data I'm looking at have? Missed deadlines might
(我所看的数据还能有什么其他含义？错过最后期限)
also mean the deadlines are unreasonable or he's taking extra time to deliver quality code.
(也可能意味着最后期限是不合理的或者他需要额外的时间来交付高质量的代码。)
Are there other sources of data I didn't consider? I haven't asked him directly yet.
(是否还有其他我没有考虑到的信息数据来源？我还没有直接问他。)
When I do, I might find out the real reason he's been missing deadlines.
(当我这样做时，我可能会发现他错过最后期限的真正原因。)
This is a simplified example but it shows the kind of jumping to conclusions I want to avoid:
(这是一个简化的例子，但是它给我们展示了我想避免的那种跳跃性结论)
missed deadlines → inefficient → not a good developer → should be fired.
(错过最后期限->效率低下->不是一个好的开发者->应该被解雇.)
By unpacking my thinking, I can look at the situation more objectively
(通过解读我的想法，我可以更客观地看待这种情况，)
and I may discover different reasons for what's happening:
(并且我可能发现发生这种情况的不同原因：)
perhaps the deadlines are too tight or he's going through some personal issues.
(也许最后期限太紧，或者他正在经历一些个人问题。)
Neither of which should be a reason to fire him.
(这两种情况都不应该成为解雇他的理由)
The ladder of influence has just helped me avoid making a bad and premature decision.
(推理阶梯的影响力只是帮助我避免做出一个错误的、不成熟的决定。)

Sources

"The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization" by Peter Senge
["Rethinking thinking" by Trevor Maber]()
"The Ladder of Inference" on Systems Thinker

Decision matrix 决策矩阵

Choose the best option by considering multiple factors.
(通过考虑多种因素选择最佳方案)
Some decisions can be tough to make.
(有些决定可能很难做出)
Especially when there are more factors that go into making them.
(特别是当有更多的因素影响到它们时。)
Decision matrix is a tool that will help you consider all the important factors when making a decision.
(决策矩阵这个工具，可以帮助你在做决定时考虑所有重要因素)
It brings more clarity into the process.
(它为这个过程带来了更多的清晰性。)

It is most useful when you have several options and you need to decide between them based on a number of different factors.
(当你有几个选择，而你需要根据一些不同的因素在它们之间做出决定时，它是最有用的。)

###How to use it?
Decision matrix is basically a simple table with your options and factors for deciding.
(决策矩阵基本上是一个简单的表格，上面有你的选项和决定的因素。)
The goal is to calculate a score for each option based on their factor scores.
(其目的是根据每个选项的因素得分计算出一个分数。)
The score will help you make your decision.
(这个分数将帮助你做出决定。)

Here's how to create a decision matrix step by step: (下面是如何一步一步地创建决策矩阵。)

1. Write down the decision you need to make
   (写下你需要做出的决定)
2. List the options you have
   (列出你拥有的选项)
3. Identify factors that you want to consider
   (确定你要考虑的因素)
4. Score the options on each factor
   (在每个因素上给选项打分)
5. Add weight to the factors
   (给各因素增加权重)
6. Calculate the options' scores – multiply each score by the factor weight, then add them up.
   (计算选项的分数--将每个分数乘以因素权重，然后相加。)
7. Pick your winner – option with the highest score
   (挑选你的赢家--得分最高的选项)

Let's see how this works in practice.
(让我们看看这在实践中是如何运作的。)

###Practical example （实践例子）
Suppose you're leading a design team and you want to decide
(假设你正在领导一个设计团队，)
which design tool you want to use as a team.
(你想决定在团队中使用哪种设计工具。)
You've done some research and you narrowed down your options to three:
(你做了一些研究，把选择范围缩小到了三个)
Sketch, Figma and Framer. Let's put them in your decision matrix table.
(Sketch, Figma 和 Framer。让我们把它们放在你的决策矩阵表中。)

Factors(决定因素)	TBD	TBD	TBD	Score(分数)
Weights
Sketch
Figma
Framer
Now let's look at the factors you need to consider.
(现在让我们来看看你需要考虑的因素。)
You have a set budget for tools so cost will be the first factor.
(你有一个固定的工具预算，所以成本将是第一个因素。)
After discussing with your team, you agree that prototyping
(在与你的团队讨论后，你同意一个工具的原型设计)
and collaboration capabilities of a tool are most important for them.
(和协作能力对他们来说是最重要的。)
Now you have the factors that will influence the decision.
(现在你有了影响决定的因素。)

Factors(决定因素)	Cost(成本)	Prototyping(原型设计)	Collaboration(协作)	Score(分数)
Weights ()
Sketch
Figma
Framer

It's time to score each option on every factor.
(现在是时候对每个选项的每个因素进行评分了。)
Let's use a scale of 1 to 5 (where 1 is the worst, 5 is the best),
(让我们用1到5的比例（其中 1 是最差的，5 是最好的），)
but you can use any scale you like.
(但你可以使用任何你喜欢的比例。)

Cost – You find out that Figma and Framer both cost $12/editor/month,
(成本-你发现 Figma 和 Framer 都是 12 美元每个月)
while Sketch is a little cheaper at $9. You'll score them 3 and 4 respectively.
(然而 Sketch 便宜一些 9 美元每个月。你会给他们分别打 3 分和 4 分。)

Prototyping – Framer comes out as the most powerful in prototyping.
(原型设计-Framer 在原型设计中是功能最强大的)
Figma and Sketch are somewhat similar, but Figma can do a little more.
(Figma 和 Sketch 有点相似，但是 Figma 可以做的更多一些)
Framer gets a 5, Figma a 3 and Sketch a 2.
(Framer 得 5分，Figma 为 3 分 并且 Sketch 得 2 分)

Collaboration – You let your team evaluate this one.
(协作-你让你的团队来评估这个问题。)
They agree that Figma is the best for collaboration,
(他们一致认为 Figma 是最适合协作的。 )
scoring it with 5. Sketch and Framer both get a 3.
(Figma 协作分数 5 分。Sketch 和 Framer 分别为 3 分)

Let's see how these look like in your decision matrix: (让我们看看这些分数在你的决策矩阵中是什么样子的。)

Factors(决定因素)	Cost(成本)	Prototyping(原型设计)	Collaboration(协作)	Score(分数)
Weights
Sketch	4	2	3
Figma	3	3	5
Framer	3	5	3

At this point, the decision might be a little clearer,
(在这一点上，决定可能会更清楚一点。 )
but all factors aren't equally important.
(但是所有的影响因素都不是一样重要的)
You need to add weight to them. Since your budget is set,
(你需要给它们增加权重。既然你的预算已经确定。 )
the cost factor is the most important, making it a 5.
(成本因素是最重要的，因此它是　５　分)
Your team says that prototyping is a little more important
(你的团队说，原型设计的侧重点更重要一些)
for them than collaboration features. You weight the factors accordingly:
(对他们来说，这比协作功能更重要．你要对这些因素进行相应的加权．)

Factors(决定因素)	Cost(成本)	Prototyping(原型设计)	Collaboration(协作)	Score(分数)
Weights	5	4	3
Sketch	4	2	3
Figma	3	3	5
Framer	3	5	3

The next step is multiplying the scores with the weight of each factor.　　
(下一步是将分数与每个因素的权重相乘。)

Score on each factor then adds up to a final score for every option:
(每个因素的得分然后加起来就是每个选项的最终得分。)

Factors(决定因素)	Cost(成本)	Prototyping(原型设计)	Collaboration(协作)	Score(分数)
Weights	5	4	3
Sketch	4*5 = 20	2*4 = 8	3*3 = 9	37
Figma	3*5 = 15	3*4 = 12	5*3 = 15	42
Framer	3*5 = 15	5*4 = 20	3*3 = 9	44

And there you have it. You have a score for each option based on the factors that are important for you.
(就这样，你有了。根据对你来说很重要的因素，你对每个选项都有一个分数。)
In this case, Framer comes out as the winner.
(在这种情况下，Framer 成为最后的赢家。)

Decision matrix is a very useful tool for situations like this.
(决策矩阵对于这样的情况是一个非常有用的工具。)
When there are multiple factors to consider,
(当有多种因素需要考虑。 )
this tools removes the uncertainty and subjectivity from your decision-making.
(这个工具消除了你决策中的不确定性和主观性)
It allows you to clearly figure out which decision is the most reasonable to make.
(它可以让你清楚地搞清楚哪个决定是最合理的。 )

App for the decision matrix

If you want to give this tool a shot,
(如果你想尝试一下这个工具)
I recommend using an app called Ruminate.
(我推荐使用这个 App 叫做 Ruminate)
It provides everything you need to create a decision matrix and does all the calculations for you.
(它提供了你创建决策矩阵所需的一切，并为你进行所有计算.)

Sources

"Decision matrix" on Toggl Blog

Confidence determines speed vs. quality 信心决定了速度与质量

Determine a trade-off between speed and quality when building products.
(在建造产品时确定速度和质量之间的权衡。 )

In product development, speed and quality are two important variables.
(在产品开发中，速度和质量是两个重要的变量。)
Prioritizing one is typically at the expense of the other.
(优先考虑一个通常是以牺牲另一个为代价的。)
This tool will help you make that trade-off.
(这个工具将帮助你做出这种权衡。)

###How to use it?
Your decision to prioritize speed or quality should be based on your confidence in:
(你决定优先考虑速度还是质量，应该基于你的信心。)

1. importance of the problem you're solving
   (你所解决的问题的重要性)
2. correctness of the solution to said problem
   (上述问题的解决方案的正确性)
   Before you start, make sure that your confidence is based on data instead of subjective views.
   (在你开始之前，确保你的信心是基于数据而不是主观意见。)
   

There are three basic outcomes:(有三个基本结果。)

• Is your confidence in the problem importance low? Focus on speed.
  (你对问题的重要性信心不足吗？注重速度)
• Is your confidence in the problem and the solution high? Focus on quality.
  (你对问题和解决方案的信心高吗？注重质量。)
• Is your confidence in the problem importance high, but low in the solution? Balance both speed and quality.
  (你对问题的重要性的信心很高，但对解决方案的信心很低？平衡速度和质量。)
• Of course, confidence isn't a switch but rather a scale. Therefore your outcome will be also more nuanced.
  (当然，信心并不是一个开关，而是一个尺度。因此，你的结果也会有更细微的差别。)

Sources

"Product management mental models for everyone" by Brandon Chu.

Hard choice model 艰难选择模式

Figure out what kind of a decision you're making.
(弄清楚你在做什么样的决定。)

The hard choice model can help you see the kind of a decision you're making – whether it's a no-brainer,
(艰难的选择模式可以帮助你看到你正在做的决定是什么样的--它是一个不需要考虑的问题，)
a hard choice or something in between. It will enable you to move forward with your decision.
(一个艰难的选择，还是介于两者之间的问题。它将使你能够推进你的决定。)

How to use it

Think about two factors of your decision:
(思考你的决定的两个因素:)

• How impactful it is
  (影响有多大。)
• How easy it is to compare the options
  (比较各种选择有多容易。)
  There are four kinds of decisions that you can make. This model places them based on those two factors:
  (有四种你可以做出的决定。这个模型根据这两个因素对它们进行定位。)

No-brainer (不费吹灰之力)

Decision with low-impact where it's easy to compare the options.
(做出影响较小的决定，很容易比较各种选择。)

Here you can move fast and go with your gut feeling.
(在这里，你可以快速行动，跟着你的直觉走。)

Apples/Oranges choice (苹果/橘子的选择)

Decision with low-impact where it's hard to compare the options.
(具有低影响的决定，其中难以比较的选项。)

You should refine your options based on what is really important to you.
(你应该根据对你来说真正重要的东西来细化你的选择。 )

Big choice (大选择)

Decision with high-impact where it's easy to compare the options.
(影响力大的决定，很容易比较各种选择。 )

You need to gain confidence before making the decision.
(你需要在做决定前获得信心。 )

Hard choice (艰难选择)

Decision with high-impact where it's hard to compare the options.
(具有高度影响的决策，很难比较各种选择。)

In this case, a tool like the decision matrix.
(在这种情况下,决策矩阵)
can help you carefully evaluate options based on different factors.
(可以帮助你根据不同的因素仔细评估选项。)

Move forward (向前迈进)

When you can categorize your decision using this model,
(当你能用这种模式对你的决定进行分类.)
it will enable you to take the appropriate action.
(它将使你能够采取适当的行动。 )

Sources

"Mental models for designers" by Wes O'Haire.

如何解决问题

Ishikawa Diagram 石川图(因果图,鱼骨图)

Identify root causes of problems.
(确定问题的根本原因。)

Ishikawa diagram is a great tool to help you solve problems by identifying their root causes.
(石川图是一个很好的工具，可以帮助你通过识别问题的根本原因来解决问题。)
Sometimes called also cause-and-effect or fishbone diagram,
(有时也被称为因果图或鱼骨图，)
it was created by Japanese professor Kaoru Ishikawa.
(它是由日本教授石川薰创造的。)
It's especially effective for tackling complex problems.
(它对解决复杂问题特别有效。)

How to use it

Building out this diagram consists of few simple steps.
(构建这个图由几个简单的步骤组成。)
This can be done in a group as a workshop but also just as well on your own.
(这可以在小组中进行，作为一个研讨会，但也可以在你自己身上进行。)

1. Define the problem (确定问题)
   Start with defining the problem and then drawing a line to the left or right of it (that's up to your preference).
   (首先定义问题，然后在它的左边或右边画一条线（这取决于你的偏好）。)

The line will be for adding factors in the next step.
(这条线将用于在下一步增加产生问题的因素。)

2. Identify contributing factors or categories (识别问题的原因或者类别)
   List out the factors/categories that could be contributing to the problem you're solving. Plot them along the main line.
   (列出可能导致你所解决的问题的因素/类别。将它们沿着主线绘制出来。 )

You can come up with your own factors or you might use generic categories: People, Equipments, Methods, Measurement, Material and Environment.
(你可以想出你自己的因素，或者你可以使用通用类别。人员、设备、方法、测量、材料和环境。)

Categorising is very helpful for breaking down complex problems and looking at them from different perspectives.
(分类对于分解复杂的问题和从不同角度看问题非常有帮助。)

3. Find possible root causes related to each factor (找到与每个因素相关的可能的根本原因)
   Ask "Why is this happening?" Write down each idea as a line under the factor it relates to.
   (问 "为什么会发生这种情况？" 将每个想法写在它所涉及的因素下的一行。 )
   First principles thinking is useful here including the "Five whys" method.
   (第一原则思维在这里是有用的，包括 "五个为什么 "的方法。 )

Keep in mind that the problem might not have just one root cause but multiple.
(请记住，问题的根源可能不只是一个，而是多个。)
So it's important to capture everything that might explain the problem, even if just partially.
(因此，捕捉所有可能解释问题的东西是很重要的，即使只是部分的。)

At this point, you should have a complete diagram but no definitive answer yet.
(在这个基础上，你应该有了一个完整的图表，但是还没有明确的答案。)

4. Analyse the diagram (分析这个图表)
   The most important step is looking at all the possible root causes and analysing them.
   (最重要的步骤是查看所有可能的根源并对其进行分析。 )
   The diagram now provides a structure for your most important thinking and next steps.
   (现在，该图为你最重要的思考和下一步行动提供了一个结构。 )

There are many possibilities what you can do at this point.
(在这一点上，你可以做的事情有很多)
Perhaps you can gather more data/evidence for each root cause candidate or immediately identify the most likely one and quickly try to solve it.
(也许你可以为每个根本原因候选人收集更多的数据/证据，或者立即确定最可能的原因并迅速尝试解决它。)
This will depend on your specific problems and identified possible causes.
(这将取决于你的具体问题和确定的可能原因。)

Example

Now let's see how to apply this on a practical example.
(现在让我们来看看如何在一个实际的例子中应用这个方法。)

Suppose you're a product manager and have to solve a trend of getting less and less new sign-ups.
(假设你是一个产品经理，必须解决一个新注册用户越来越少的趋势。)
You start with this definition and then identify contributing factors.
(你从这个定义开始，然后找出促成因素。)

In this example, you identified landing page issues, competition and marketing as factors.
(在这个例子中，你把登陆页面问题、竞争和营销作为因素。)

Now let's find specific possible root causes under each factor:
(现在让我们在每个因素下找到具体的可能根源。 )

With all of these written down, you can begin to analyse where the problem originates.
(写下所有这些，你就可以开始分析问题的根源所在。)
In this example, you might first verify if the conversion rate is steady despite lower traffic.
(在这个例子中，你可以首先验证一下，尽管流量减少，但转换率是否稳定。)
Then you might audit your sign-up flow to find any leaks and possibly streamline it.
(然后，你可能会审计你的注册流程，以找到任何漏洞，并可能精简它。)

This is a simplified example but this diagram can be definitely used for much more complex problems.
(这是一个简化的例子，但这个图绝对可以用于更复杂的问题解决上。 )

Takeaway

Ishikawa diagram offers a simple framework for finding root causes of problems:
(石川图为寻找问题的根本原因提供了一个简单的框架。)

1.Define the problem (定义问题)
2.Identify contributing factors or categories (确定问题产生因素或者类别)
3.Find possible root causes related to each factor (找到与每个因素相关的可能的根本原因)
4.Analyse the diagram (分析图表)

You'll create the diagram with the first three steps. It will then provide a structure for your analysis.
(你将通过前三个步骤创建图表。然后，它将为你的分析提供一个结构。 )

Sources

["How to create cause-and-effect diagrams" by HarvardX (Video)]()
"Fishbone Diagram" by American Society for Quality

Conflict Resolution Diagram 冲突解决图示

Find win-win solutions to conflicts
(找到解决冲突的双赢办法 )

Handling conflicts carefully is important. Conflict Resolution Diagram (also called "Evaporating Cloud") is a tool
(谨慎处理冲突是很重要的。冲突解决图（也叫 "蒸发云"）是一种工具，)
that will help you resolve them peacefully while making sure that needs of both sides are met.
(它将可以帮助你和平地解决它们，同时确保双方的需求得到满足。)

It's one of the thinking tools developed as part of the Theory of Constraints by Eliyahu Goldratt.
(它是由Eliyahu Goldratt开发的思维工具之一，是约束理论的一部分。)
Let's see how it works.
(让我们看看它是如何工作的。)

How to use it

The best time to use this tool is when you run into a conflict that seems impossible to resolve by accepting the proposal of either side.
(使用这一工具的最佳时机是当你遇到一个似乎不可能通过接受任何一方的提议来解决的冲突。 翻译不佳)
This can be a conflict with others but also internal.
(这可以是与他人的冲突，也可以是内部冲突。)
It can be professional or personal. You can draw the diagram on a whiteboard, piece of paper or run through it in your head.
(它可以是专业的，也可以是个人的。你可以在白板上、纸上画出这个图，或者在你的头脑中运行这个图。)

The diagram is very simple and consists of three parts:(这张图非常简单，由三部分组成。)

• Demands/proposals of the opposing sides: these are usually mutually exclusive which is what creates the conflict.
  (对立双方的要求/建议：这些要求/建议通常是相互排斥的，这就是产生冲突的原因。)
• Underlying needs or requirements of both sides
  (双方的基本需求或要求)
• Shared goal or objective that's behind the needs
  (需求背后的共同目标或目的)

In this case, you work the diagram backwards – from right to left.
(在这种情况下，你要倒着看图--从右到左。)

1. Identify what each side is arguing for – what are the demands or proposals.
   (确定每一方所争论的内容--有哪些要求或建议。)

• Ask: What does the other side want to do? What do I want to do?
  (问: 另一方想做什么？我想做什么？)

2. Define the need that's behind each side's position.
   (界定每一方立场背后的需求。)

• Ask: What needs are satisfied by the proposal of each side?
  (问道："对方的提议满足了什么需求？每一方的提议能满足哪些需求？)

3. Find what's the shared goal:
   (找到共同的目标是什么:)

• Ask: What will be achieved by meeting the needs of both sides?
  (问：通过满足双方的需求，可以达到什么目的？通过满足双方的需求，可以实现什么？)
• This is the most critical part. There's usually something that both sides want to achieve on a higher level but have different views about how to do it.
  (这是最关键的部分。通常有一些东西是双方都想在更高层次上实现的，但对如何做到这一点却有不同看法。)
  Acknowledge that you're on the same team to achieve that objective.
  (承认你们是在同一个团队中实现这个目标。 翻译不佳)

Identifying the shared goal is necessary for finding a win-win solution.
(确定共同的目标对于找到一个双赢的解决方案是必要的。)

Discuss any assumptions that are behind the original proposals – this usually shines the light on the mutual exclusivity that created the conflict.
(讨论原始建议背后的任何假设--这通常会让人看到造成冲突的相互排斥性。)

From here, you can build up a new solution. This time with focus on the shared goal and satisfying the needs of both sides.
(从这里，你可以建立起一个新的解决方案。这一次的重点是共同的目标和满足双方的需求。)

And that's why the conflict can be resolved:
(这就是为什么冲突可以得到解决。)

1.peacefully: by looking for what unites both sides.
(和平地解决：通过寻找使双方团结的因素。)
2.and productively: by working toward a win-win solution that helps achieve the shared goal.
(和富有成效地：通过努力实现双赢的解决方案，帮助实现共同的目标。)

Example

Let's look at how this could be used in practice.
(让我们来看看这在实践中如何使用。)
Say you're debating redesigning your product website with your colleague.
(假设你正在和你的同事争论重新设计你的产品网站。)
You're against the project but your colleague is pushing for it.
(你反对这个项目，但你的同事却力挺它。)
You've been discussing this for an hour without any result.
(你们已经讨论了一个小时，没有任何结果。)
To move on, you suggest to create this conflict resolution diagram.
(为了继续前进，你建议创建这个冲突解决图。)

First, you write down both sides of the argument: redesigning vs not.
(首先，你写下争论的双方：重新设计 vs 不重新设计。)

After that, you identify the need behind each approach by discussing why exactly each approach is better.
(然后，你通过讨论为什么每种方法都更好，来确定每种方法背后的需求。)
You find out that your colleague needs the website to have a better conversion rate.
(你发现，你的同事需要网站有更好的用户转换率。)
You're arguing against the project because
(你反对这个项目，)
you want to minimize waste of resources and you see a big risk in such a big project.
(因为你想尽量减少资源的浪费，而且你认为这样一个大项目有很大的风险。)

Finally, you work together to identify what's the goal you both want to achieve by meeting those needs.
(最后，你们一起工作，确定什么是你们双方都想通过满足这些需求来实现的目标。)
You discover that you both want to meet the financial goals of the company.
(你们发现，你们都想满足公司的财务目标。)
The shared objective is running a profitable business.
(共同的目标是经营一个有利可图的企业。)

This is great progress as now you have something in common to work with.
(这是很大的进步，因为现在你们有了共同的东西来工作。)
By working from what you have in common, you are able to resolve the conflict
(通过从你们的共同点出发，你们能够解决冲突，)
and come up with a solution that supports your goal and meets both of your needs:
(并提出一个支持你们的目标和满足你们双方需求的解决方案：)
such as running small targeted experiments on your website that can move
(例如在你们的网站上进行小型的有针对性的实验，)
the needle on conversion rate without using a lot of resources.
(可以在不使用大量资源的情况下推动转换率。)

It's a simplified example but shows the great benefit of using the conflict resolution diagram: finding win-win solutions.
(这是一个简化的例子，但显示了使用冲突解决图的巨大好处：找到双赢的解决方案。)

Sources

The Logical Thinking Process by H. William Dettmer
'The Punk Strategy Guide to the Logical Thinking Process' on Forte Labs Blog

Productive Thinking Model 生产性思维模式

Solve problems creatively and efficiently.
(创造性地、高效地解决问题。)

By applying more structured and critical thinking, you can understand the problem at hand better
(通过应用更多的结构化和批判性思维，你可以更好地理解手头的问题，)
and come up with more creative solutions to it. The Productive Thinking Model, created by Tim Hurson, can help you do just that.
(并想出更有创意的解决方案。由Tim Hurson创建的 "生产性思维模型 ",可以帮助你做到这一点。)

It's best used when a problem is already defined and you're looking for creative solutions.
(它最适合在问题已经确定，而你正在寻找创造性的解决方案时使用。)

How to use it

This tool gives you a 6-step framework for problem-solving. The six steps are:
(这个工具为你提供了一个解决问题的六步框架。这六个步骤是: )

1. Ask "What's going on?"
   (问 "发生了什么事？")
2. Ask "What's success?"
   (问 "什么是成功？" )
3. Ask "What's the question?"
   (问 "问题是什么？" )
4. Generate answers
   (产生答案)
5. Forge the solution
   (形成解决方案)
6. Align resources
   (整合资源)
   ;

Let's look at each step in more detail.
(让我们更详细地看看每个步骤。)

1. Ask "What's going on?" (问 "发生了什么事？")

The first step is about understanding the problem better.
(第一步是要更好地理解问题。 )
You can use these guiding questions to help you:
(你可以使用这些指导性问题来帮助你。 )

• What's the problem exactly?
  (究竟是什么问题？ )
• What's the impact of this problem?
  (这个问题的影响是什么？ )
• What do I already know? What information do I have?
  (我已经知道什么？我有什么信息？)
• Who is involved in this?
  (谁参与了这件事？)
• What's the vision of the future when this problem is solved?
  (这个问题解决后，对未来的愿景是什么？ )
  (This is what Hurson calls the "Target Future")
  (这就是赫森所说的 "目标未来")

Document the answers you gather here as you'll need them later in the process.
(记录你在这里收集到的答案，因为你在以后的过程中会需要它们。 )

2. Ask "What's success?" (问 "什么是成功？" )

This step will help you define what success looks like in your vision of the future (that you created in the previous step).
(这一步将帮助你定义成功在你的未来愿景中是什么样子的（你在上一步创建的）。 )

To come up with the success criteria, you can use the DRIVE framework:
(为了提出成功标注，你可以使用 DRIVE 框架)

• What do you want the solution to do?
  (你希望解决方案能做什么？)
• What are the restrictions? What must it not do?
  (有什么限制？什么是不能做的？)
• (You can use inversion to help you here)
  ((你可以在这里使用 反转法 来帮助你))
• What resources can we invest in this?
  (我们可以在这方面 投入什么 资源？)
• What values should the solution have?
  (该解决方案应该具有哪些 价值 ？)
• What are the essential outcomes?
  (基本的结果 是什么？)

Feel free to cycle through these questions until you have a clear vision of success in front of you.
(请自由地循环讨论这些问题，直到你面前有一个清晰的成功愿景。)

3. Ask "What's the question?" (问："问题是什么？")

Now it's time to generate questions that must be answered to achieve your vision (the Target Future).
(现在是时候产生为实现你的愿景（目标未来）而必须回答的问题。)
Hurson calls these "catalytic questions".
(Hurson称这些为 "催化性问题"。)

Use the information you've gathered in the previous steps.
(使用你在前面的步骤中收集的信息。)
Phrases like "How might we...?" or "How can I...?" will help you formulate the questions.
(诸如 "我们怎样才能...... "或 "我怎样才能...... "这样的短语将帮助你制定问题。)

4. Generate answers

In this step, try to come up with as many answers to the catalytic questions as you can.
(在这一步，尽量想出更多催化问题的答案。)
Brainstorm, don't judge and collect ideas. These are your potential solutions.
(进行头脑风暴，不要判断，收集想法。这些是你的潜在解决方案。)

In the next step, you will narrow down your list of ideas to the most promising ones.
(在下一步，你将把你的想法清单缩小到最有希望的想法。)

5. Forge the solution (提炼理解方案)

You need to choose the best solution before developing it further.
(在进一步发展之前，你需要选择最佳的解决方案。)
Take your list from the previous step and evaluate each idea/solution against the success criteria from step 2.
(拿出上一步的清单，对照第二步的成功标准评估每个想法/解决方案。)
Use a decision matrix to make this step easier.
(使用决策矩阵，使这一步更容易。)

Now you can think about building on your selected solution(s).
(现在你可以考虑在你选定的解决方案的基础上进一步发展。)
What could make it better? How can you make it fit the success criteria more?
(什么可以使它变得更好？如何才能使它更符合成功标准？)

6. Align resources (调整资源)

In this final step, you move toward executing the solution.
(在这最后一步中，你将走向执行解决方案。)

Write down which actions and resources are necessary to make this happen.
(写下哪些行动和资源是实现这一目标所必需的。)
Identify people who are responsible for it – in whole as well as each part of the solution.
(确定负责此事的人--整体以及解决方案的每个部分。)

It's best to specify all of this in detail so that you have a clear plan of action.
(最好详细说明所有这些，以便你有一个明确的行动计划。)
You should now be able to execute the solution.
(现在你应该能够执行解决方案了。)

Example

Let's look at how this tool can be used in a practical example.
(让我们来看看这个工具如何在一个实际的例子中使用。)

Suppose that what you're solving is winning a prospective customer.
(假设你要解决的问题是赢得一个潜在的客户。)

When you probe about the situation, you find out that:
(当你探究情况时，你发现。)

• It's a customer with difficult requirements but one that could bring in a lot of revenue.
  (这是一个有要求苛刻的客户，但却是一个可以带来大量收入的客户。)
• The impact of losing this revenue could be significant for your business.
  (失去这部分收入对你的业务影响可能很大。)
• Your sales team has been in touch with them and know that ease of use is important for them, among other things.
  (你的销售团队一直在与他们接触，知道易用性对他们来说很重要，还有其他的事情。)

Your vision (or target future) is that the customer is successfully onboarded, uses your product daily and brings in the revenue.
(你的愿景（或目标未来）是，客户成功入职，每天使用你的产品，并带来收入。)

Let's now define success, as per step 2, using the DRIVE framework:
(现在，让我们按照第2步，用 DRIVE 框架来定义成功。)

• What must the solution do? Show the customer the value of your product and also how well you can take care of them.
  (该解决方案必须做什么？向客户展示你的产品的价值，也展示你对客户的照顾有多好。)

• What are the restrictions? The solution must show that we meet the customer's requirements and that the product is easy to use.
  (有什么限制？解决方案必须显示我们满足客户的需求，并且产品易于使用。)

• What resources can we invest in this? We can invest two weeks of two salespeople and one week of a designer and an engineer.
  (我们可以在这方面投入什么资源？我们可以投资两个星期的两个销售人员，一个星期的设计师和一个工程师。)

• What values should the solution have? It's convincing, transparent and thoughtful.
  (该解决方案应该具有哪些价值？ 它是有说服力的、透明的和周到的。 )

• What's the essential outcome? Customer agrees to sign a contract.
  (基本结果是什么？客户同意签署合同。)
  We can now move on to defining the "catalytic questions" that must be answered to reach our vision:
  (我们现在可以继续界定为实现我们的愿景而必须回答的 "催化问题"。)

• How might we show the value of the product in a way that meets their requirements?
  (我们如何以符合他们要求的方式来展示产品的价值？)

• How do we demonstrate the ease of use?
  (我们如何展示使用的便利性？)

Let's say these are the most critical questions and we need to focus on them.
(比方说，这些是最关键的问题，我们需要关注它们。)
We can brainstorm some answers (potential solutions):
(我们可以进行头脑风暴，提出一些答案（潜在的解决方案）。)

• Present a slide deck with product and company highlights
  (提出一个包含产品和公司亮点的幻灯片)
• Build an interactive demo personalized for the customer
  (为客户建立一个个性化的互动演示)
• Spend a day with the potential end-users and have them try the product hands-on
  (花一天时间与潜在的终端用户在一起，让他们亲身体验产品)
• Give key stakeholders a tour of the product
  (让关键的利益相关者参观一下产品)

Now we need to choose the most promising solution.
(现在我们需要选择最有希望的解决方案。)
For the sake of simplicity, let's say we used the decision matrix and
(为了简单起见，假设我们使用了决策矩阵，)
it turns out that the best solution seems to be spending a day with
(结果发现最好的解决方案似乎是花一天时间)
the potential end-users and having them try the product hands-on.
(与潜在的终端用户在一起，让他们亲身尝试产品。)

We can make this even better by inviting key stakeholders to observe
(我们可以通过邀请关键的利益相关者来观察，)
so they can see the value the product can bring to their users and also that it's easy to use for them.
(让他们看到产品能给他们的用户带来的价值，同时也看到产品对他们来说是很容易使用的，这样做就更完美了。)

The final step would be to align the resources: we will send a small team consisting of two salespeople and an engineer (to set up the product on-site) to travel to the customer for a day.
(最后一步将是调整资源：我们将派出一个由两名销售人员和一名工程师（负责现场设置产品）组成的小团队，前往客户处进行为期一天的考察)
The Sales VP will be responsible for coordinating this.
(销售副总裁将负责协调此事。)
And an engineering manager will be tasked with preparing the right version of the product for the trial.
(而一位工程经理将负责为试用准备正确的产品版本。)

We now have a clear plan of action for the most promising solution to the problem.
(我们现在有了一个明确的行动计划，以解决这个问题的最有希望的方案。)

Takeaway

The Productive Thinking Model enables you to solve problems creatively through structured,
(生产性思维模式使你能够通过结构化的批判性思维创造性地解决问题。)
critical thinking. It offers a 6-step framework:
(它提供了一个6个步骤的框架。)

1. Ask "What's going on?"
   (问 "发生了什么？")
2. Ask "What's success?"
   (问 "成功是什么？")
3. Ask "What's the question?"
   (问 "问题是什么？")
4. Generate answers
   (产生答案)
5. Forge the solution
   (形成解决方案)
6. Align resources
   (调整资源)

After going through these steps, you should be equipped with an action plan based on the best solution to your problem.
(在经历了这些步骤之后，你应该具备一个基于解决问题的最佳方案的行动计划。)

Sources

"Think Better: An Innovator's Guide to Productive Thinking" by Tim Hurson

Abstraction laddering 抽象的阶梯式发展

Frame your problem better with different levels of abstraction.
(用不同的抽象层次来更好地构建你的问题。)

Abstraction laddering is a tool for framing problems more skillfully.
(抽象阶梯法是一种更有技巧地构建问题的工具。)
It helps with defining a problem that you need to solve more clearly.
(它有助于更清楚地定义你需要解决的问题。)
It helps you to move beyond an initial problem statement.
(它可以帮助你超越最初的问题陈述。)

This tool provides you with the ability to ask the right questions to move up and down the ladder.
(这个工具为你提供了提出正确问题的能力，使你能够在阶梯上向上和向下移动。)

Move up to expand the scope, to "see the forest for the trees".
(向上移动以扩大范围，"只见树木不见森林"。)
Move down to develop concrete solutions.
(向下移动以制定具体的解决方案。)

How to use it

• Start with an initial problem statement in the middle of the ladder.
  (从阶梯中间的初始问题陈述开始。)

• Ask "why" questions to get more abstract problem statements. This can help you frame the problem differently.
  (提出 "为什么 "的问题以获得更抽象的问题陈述。这可以帮助你以不同的方式构建问题。)

• Ask "how" questions to step toward a more concrete statement or solution.
  (问 "如何 "的问题，以迈向更具体的陈述或解决方案。)
  This helps you come up with different problem statements than the one you started with.
  (这有助于你想出与开始时不同的问题陈述。)
  It enables you to find more innovative solutions.
  (它使你能够找到更多创新的解决方案。)

The great thing about this tool is that you can use it anywhere in the design process.
(这个工具的好处是，你可以在设计过程的任何地方使用它。)
It can be used fairly quickly—in mere minutes—whether you're working alone or in a workshop setting with your team.
(无论你是单独工作还是与你的团队一起在车间里工作，它都可以很快地被使用--只需几分钟。)

What does it look like in practice? (它在实践中是什么样子的？)

Here's a simple example from Wes O'Haire from Dropbox:
(下面是来自 Dropbox 的 Wes O'Haire 的一个简单例子:)

He starts with an initial problem statement: "Design a better can opener".
(他从一个最初的问题陈述开始:"设计一个更好的开罐器")
Initially asking "how?", he gets to a more concrete statement "Make it more appealing".
(最初问 "怎么做？"，他得到一个更具体的陈述："让它更吸引人"。)

But he can also go up the ladder: "Why do we need a better can opener?"
(但他也可以往上爬："为什么我们需要一个更好的开罐器？")

This leads him to the more abstract problem statement: "Get soup out of the can".
(这将他引向更抽象的问题陈述: "把汤从罐子里拿出来".)
From there, he might ask "How might we get the soup out of the can?".
(从那里，他可能会问："我们怎样才能把汤从罐子里弄出来呢？")
That enables defining a different problem statement: "Make it more convenient."
(这就可以定义一个不同的问题陈述。"让它更方便"。)

Sources

"Mental models for designers" by Wes O'Haire
"Abstraction laddering" by Autodesk

Inversion 反转法

Approach a problem from a different point of view.
(从不同的角度来处理问题。)

Inversion is useful when you need to view the problem you're solving from a different angle.
(当你需要从不同的角度来看待你正在解决的问题时，反转是很有用的。)
It can help you see a different perspective and imagine worst-case scenarios.
(它可以帮助你看到不同的视角，想象最坏的情况。)

How to use it?

A good trigger question to know if inversion can help you is "Am I only thinking of ideal solutions or scenarios?"
(要知道反转是否能帮助你，一个很好的触发问题是："我是否只想到了理想的解决方案或情景？")

You can then invert your thinking about the problem or a solution. To do that, follow these steps:
(然后你可以反转你对问题或解决方案的思考。要做到这一点，请遵循以下步骤。)

1. Ask yourself: What would be the worst decision/solution in this situation?
   (问问自己。在这种情况下，最糟糕的决定/解决方案是什么？)
2. Ask yourself: Why would it be bad? Write those reasons down.
   (问问自己。为什么会是坏的？把这些原因写下来。)
3. Try to come up with a good decision/solution, now by looking at the reasons that would make a bad decision.
   (试着想出一个好的决定/解决方案，现在看看那些会做出坏决定的原因。 )

Inversion helps you see the bad outcomes and therefore avoid them.
(倒置有助于你看到不好的结果，从而避免它们。)

More questions that could help you see the inverted perspective are:
(更多可以帮助你看到倒置观点的问题是。)

• How could this go wrong? (这怎么可能出错？)
• What would the opposite of this be? (与此相反的情况会是什么？)
• What would make a bad solution to this? (什么会使这个问题的解决变得糟糕？)

###Inversion in practice
Project managers use inversion in an exercise called pre-mortem.
(项目经理们 (风险管理中) 在一种叫做 "预验收 "的练习中使用反转法。)

The team gathers to imagine it's six months from now and the project they've worked on has failed.
(团队聚集在一起，想象现在是6个月后，他们所做的项目已经失败。)
They examine this potential scenario by asking questions like "What went wrong?",
(他们通过询问 "什么地方出错了？"、)
"What mistakes did we make?" or "Why did this project fail?".
("我们犯了什么错误？"或 "为什么这个项目会失败？等问题来检查这种潜在的情况。)

This makes the team see potential pitfalls ahead of time and prepare for them.
(这使团队提前看到了潜在的陷阱，并为它们做好准备。)
By using inversion, they're able to avoid possible mistakes and bad outcomes.
(通过使用反转法，他们能够避免可能的错误和坏结果。)

Sources

"Mental models for designers" by Wes O'Haire
"Inversion" by James Clear

Issue trees 问题树

Structure and solve problems in a systematic way.
(以系统的方式构造和解决问题。 )

Issue trees are basically maps of problems.
(问题树基本上是问题的地图。)
They give you a clear and systematic way of looking at the problem you need to solve.
(它们给你提供了一种清晰和系统的方式来看待你需要解决的问题。)
They help you break down a big problem into smaller, more manageable ones,
(它们帮助你把一个大问题分解成更小、更容易管理的问题，)
and prioritize certain parts of the problem.
(并对问题的某些部分进行优先排序。)
In other words, they're useful for the "divide and conquer" strategy.
(换句话说，它们对 "分而治之 "的策略很有用。)

Issue trees are also great for communicating about a problem with others since they provide a map of the problem.
(问题树也是与他人沟通问题的好办法，因为它们提供了问题的地图。)

There are two basic kinds of issue trees:
(有两种基本的问题树。)

1. Problem trees – created by answering "Why?"
   (问题树--通过回答 "为什么？"来创建。)
2. Solution trees – created by answering "How?"
   (解决方案树--通过回答 "如何 "来创建。)

How to create an issue tree (如何创建问题树？)

Problem tree (问题树)

A good issue tree must cover the whole problem.
(一个好的问题树必须涵盖整个问题。)
It has to be rigorous. Here are some basic principles for creating an issue tree.
(它必须是严格的。以下是创建问题树的一些基本原则。)

1.Start breaking down the problem into separate categories/branches.
(开始将问题分解成独立的类别/分支。)

2.Use the MECE principle: mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive.
(使用 MECE 原则：相互排斥，集体详尽。翻译不佳)

• Mutually exclusive means there is no overlap between different parts of the tree.
  (相互排斥意味着树的不同部分之间没有重叠。)
  Collectively exhaustive means they cover the whole problem.
  (集体详尽意味着它们涵盖了整个问题。)

3.Do not go into the small details (specific hypotheses):
(不要进入小的细节（具体的假设）：)
focus on capturing the broad categories that make up the problem.
(专注于捕捉构成问题的大的类别)

4.Apply the 80/20 rule: focus on the few parts of the problem that are most impactful.
(应用80/20规则：专注于问题中最有影响的几个部分。)

• This is best to base on data, rather than your own hypotheses.
  (这最好是基于数据，而不是你自己的假设。)

Solution tree (解决树)

When you have singled out some specific parts of the problem that you want to focus on,
(当你挑出问题的一些具体部分，你想关注的问题 )
you can follow up with creating a solution tree.
(你可以跟进，创建一个解决方案树。)

1.Take the problem part you want to focus on and ask "How might we improve/fix this?"
(拿出你想关注的问题部分，然后问："我们可以如何改进/解决这个问题？")
2.Map out potential categories of the solution
(绘制出解决方案的潜在类别)
3.Generate ideas within each category
(在每个类别中产生想法)

The advantage of this structured way of thinking is that working with constraints
(这种结构化的思考方式的好处是，与约束条件一起工作实际上)
will actually help you generate more ideas.
(会帮助你产生更多的想法。)

Example

Let's see an example of creating an issue tree.
(让我们看一个创建问题树的例子。)
Suppose you're working on a product and you're seeing customers
(假设你正在开发一个产品，你看到客户)
not adopting one of your key features. That will be the tree starting point.
(没有采用你的一个关键功能。这将是树的起点。)

We'll break it down to smaller branches that cover possible causes: (我们将把它分解成更小的分支，涵盖可能的原因。)

• Low adoption of feature X (功能 X 的采用率低)
  • Customers don't know about the feature.(客户不知道这个功能。)
  • Customers know about it, but still don't use it.(客户知道它，但仍然不使用它。)

For a first level of the tree, it's incredibly basic, (对于树的第一层来说，这是令人难以置信的基础，)
but it's actually MECE – it's mutually exclusive yet covers the whole problem.(但它实际上是 MECE--它是相互排斥的，但却涵盖了整个问题。)

Branching out further, we can eventually get this tree:(进一步分支，我们最终可以得到这棵树。)

• Low adoption of feature X (功能 X 的采用率低)
  • Customers don't know about the feature (客户不知道这个功能。)
    • The feature is not discoverable in the product (该功能在产品中无法发现)
    • Customer's don't learn about the feature outside of the product (客户在产品之外没有了解到该功能)
  • Customers know about it, but still don't use it (客户知道它，但仍然不使用它。)
    • Customers haven't tried it yet (客户还没有尝试过该功能)
      • They don't believe the feature can help them (他们不相信这个功能可以帮助他们)
  • Customers tried it but decided not to use it (客户尝试过，但决定不使用它)
    • The feature is not usable (该功能无法使用)
    • The feature is not working properly (该功能不能正常工作)
    • The feature doesn't support customer needs (这个功能没办法满足客户的需求)

We could investigate even further, but already we can see which part of the problem to start with.
(我们可以进一步调查，但我们已经可以看到应该从哪一部分问题开始。)
In this case, focusing on the knowledge about the feature should be a high priority –
(在这种情况下，关注有关该功能的知识应该是一个高度优先事项--)
there might be nothing wrong with the feature, customers just don't know about it.
(该功能可能没有任何问题，客户只是不知道它)

This is a nice example of how a very simple issue tree can help you break down a problem
(这是一个很好的例子，说明一个非常简单的问题树可以帮助你分解问题)
and give you a starting point for solving it.
(并且给你一个解决问题的起点。)

Takeaway

Issue trees are a great tool for approaching problems systematically
(问题树是系统地处理问题的一个伟大工具)
by breaking them down. You can create problem issue trees (by asking "why?")
(分解它们。你可以创建问题树（通过问 "为什么"？）)
or solution issue trees (by asking "how?") depending on where you are in the process of problem-solving.
(或解决方案问题树（通过问 "怎么做"），这取决于你在解决问题过程中的位置。)

Sources

"The Definitive Guide to Issue Trees" on Crafting Cases

First principles 第一原则

Break down complex problems into basic elements and create innovative solutions from there.
(将复杂的问题分解成基本元素，并从中创造出创新的解决方案。)

Sometimes also called "reasoning from first principles", it's a powerful tool for problem-solving.
(有时也被称为 "从第一原理推理"，它是解决问题的有力工具。)
Identifying the basic principles of a problem will allow you to come up with innovative solutions.
(确定问题的基本原则将使你能够想出创新的解决方案。)

First principle is a basic principle or truth that cannot be broken down any further.
(第一原则是指不能再进一步分解的基本原则或真理。)
First-principles thinking is about digging deeper until you arrive at the very foundations of a problem.
(第一原则思维是指深入挖掘，直到你到达问题的根本所在。)

How to use it?

Start with your problem and take these two steps:
(从你的问题开始，采取这两个步骤。)

1. Break it down to the most basic truths (first principles)
   (把它分解成最基本的事实（第一原则）。)
2. Re-build a solution from those principles
   (根据这些原则重新建立一个解决方案)

It sounds simple but requires some focused thinking to really dig deep in the problem and discover those first principles.
(这听起来很简单，但需要一些集中的思考，以真正深入挖掘问题并发现这些第一原则。)

There are some techniques to help you:
(有一些技巧可以帮助你。)

The Five Whys (五个为什么？)

This is a popular technique in user research where a researcher digs deeper by repeatedly asking "why" questions.
(这是用户研究中一种流行的技术，研究者通过反复询问 "为什么 "的问题来进行深入挖掘。)
It enables you to discover the root causes of problems.
(它使你能够发现问题的根本原因。)
Of course, you don't have to stop at five,
(当然，你不必止步于五个问题，)
but it's generally enough to discover a first principle.
(但一般来说，这足以发现第一个原则。)

Socratic questioning (苏格拉底式的提问)

A form of disciplined questioning that enables critical thinking.
(一种能够实现批判性思维的有纪律的提问形式。)
There are six types of questions you can ask to dig deeper for the fundamental truth:
(你可以提出六种类型的问题，以深入挖掘基本真理。)

1.Clarification – "What do you mean by...?"
(澄清--"你说的......是什么意思？")
2.Probing assumptions – "What could we assume instead?"
(探究假设--"我们可以用什么来代替假设？")
3.Probing reasons/evidence – "Why do you think this is true?"
(探究原因/证据--"为什么你认为这是真的？")
4.Implications and consequences – "What effect would that have?"
(影响和后果--"那会有什么影响？")
5.Different viewpoints – "What would be an alternative?"
(不同的观点--"另一种选择是什么？")
6.Questioning the original question – "What was the point of this question?"
(对原始问题的质疑--"这个问题的重点是什么？")

First principles in practice

Let's see first-principles thinking in action.
(让我们看看第一原理思维的实际应用。)
Here's a nice example from Wes O'Haire, designer at Dropbox:
(这里有一个来自 Dropbox 设计师 Wes O'Haire 的好例子。)

"I did this on a project last year where we started with our problem statement.
("我去年在一个项目中这样做了，我们从我们的问题陈述开始。)
From there, I broke it down into its fundamental parts,
(从那里，我把它分解成基本部分，)
then addressed each part, and reconfigured it to build up a solution."
(然后解决每个部分，并重新配置，以建立一个解决方案。")

Sources

"Mental models for designers" by Wes O'Haire

"First Principles: The Building Blocks of True Knowledge" by Shane Parrish